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Morning Brew September 23 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Powell keeps the sentiment friendly with minimum taper outlook
Good Morning
The Federal Reserve announced it is looking to reduce its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected. Powell indicated he would taper if the job market in September was reasonably strong, this makes the Non-Farm Payroll on October 8 extremely important.
The first rate hikes is expected in 2022 and more in 2023 and 2024.
Equities took the announcement friendly, the USD initially fell then rose pretty much back to where we started the day. All three US Indexes closed 1% higher and can rise over night, the Dax Future is 15560, the S&P500 Future 4397. EURUSD rose to 1.1755 yesterday and fell to 1.1708, gold and silver are trading at 1765 and 22.62 after highs at 1787 and 23.15 . The USD Index broke below 93 briefly to rise to 93.50 currently trade 93.36. Bitcoin can rise to 43800.
It seems Powel did what was expected to keep his post – he did not spook the market.
Evergrande remains unsettled but the company said it will focus on delivering to home buyers, construction workers and retail investors as a priority and shares can rise off the lows. It is justified to keep a close eye on developments here.
As after the data release is before the release, we expect the focus today to be on the SNB at 9:30, EU Markit PMI at 10, UK PMI at 10:30, the Bank of England at 13:00 at the same time as the Central Bank of Turkey, Initial Jobless claims out of the US at 14:30 and the US PMI at 15:45.
Lastly the German election is due on Sunday and it looks like change is coming, but many voters remain undecided