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Morning Brew November 4 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Taper without Tantrum - Markets calm
Good Morning.
The FOMC delivered a dovish taper yesterday – fairly in line with our expectation. Tapering will start end of the month, no rate hikes are in sight and inflation is transitory and largely caused by supply constraints. Equities rose, Dax as well as the Nasdaq100 are trading above 16000. The Non-Farm Payroll will be closely watched as Powell linked the speed of tapering to the employment situation, albeit not fully transparently. The feared “taper tantrum” was avoided for now. Christine Lagarde came on the wires ahead of the FOMC reaffirming the dovish ECB stance, stating a 2022 hike was unlikely.
Gold and Silver came under pressure before the FOMC yesterday but could recover some of the losses after the rate decision, currently trading at 1772 and 23.45.
GBPUSD is trading at 1.3663, the BoE will announce rates at 13:00. A hike of 0.25% is expected with 62% probability but if the BoE follows the Fed and the ECB there could be a surprise. Poland raised rates yesterday, to fight inflation.
Ether hit a new record yesterday.
Crude oil came under pressure on a triple dose of price negative news on yesterday says Ole Hansen: The EIA report showed higher stocks and rising production, Iran nuclear talks resume on Nov 29 and the Fed started to roll back its stimulus support.
Credit Suisse announced a sharp decline in 3rd quarter income and is expecting a Q4 loss due 1.6 bio in impairments.
Toyota Motor Corp reported a 48% rise in operating profit and raised its earnings outlook for the year on a weak yen.
Poland Raises Rates More Than Expected to Temper Inflation.
Economic Data today:
EU PMIs in the morning, the Norwegian Rate decision at 10:00 the BoE at 13:00 and US Employment data.
Earnings:
Thursday: Siemens Healthiners , Toyota Motor,Deutsche Post AG ,Duke Energy Corp,Square Inc, Airbnb Inc, Enel SpA, Uber Technologies, MercadoLibre, Moderna Inc , Zoetis Inc Cigna Corp, Fidelity National
Friday: Alibaba Group Holding, Enbridge Inc
Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway