Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew November 4 2021

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Taper without Tantrum - Markets calm

Good Morning.

The FOMC delivered a dovish taper yesterday – fairly in line with our expectation. Tapering will start end of the month, no rate hikes are in sight and inflation is transitory and largely caused by supply constraints. Equities rose, Dax as well as the Nasdaq100 are trading above 16000. The Non-Farm Payroll will be closely watched as Powell linked the speed of tapering to the employment situation, albeit not fully transparently. The feared “taper tantrum” was avoided for now. Christine Lagarde came on the wires ahead of the FOMC reaffirming the dovish ECB stance, stating a 2022 hike was unlikely.

Gold and Silver came under pressure before the FOMC yesterday but could recover some of the losses after the rate decision, currently trading at 1772 and 23.45.

GBPUSD is trading at 1.3663, the BoE will announce rates at 13:00. A hike of 0.25% is expected with 62% probability but if the BoE follows the Fed and the ECB there could be a surprise. Poland raised rates yesterday, to fight inflation.

Ether hit a new record yesterday.

Crude oil came under pressure on a triple dose of price negative news on yesterday says Ole Hansen: The EIA report showed higher stocks and rising production, Iran nuclear talks resume on Nov 29 and the Fed started to roll back its stimulus support.

Credit Suisse announced a sharp decline in 3rd quarter income and is expecting a Q4 loss due 1.6 bio in impairments.

Toyota Motor Corp reported a 48% rise in operating profit and raised its earnings outlook for the year on a weak yen.

Poland Raises Rates More Than Expected to Temper Inflation.

Economic Data today:

EU PMIs in the morning, the Norwegian Rate decision at 10:00 the BoE at 13:00 and US Employment data.


Thursday: Siemens Healthiners , Toyota Motor,Deutsche Post AG ,Duke Energy Corp,Square Inc, Airbnb Inc, Enel SpA, Uber Technologies, MercadoLibre, Moderna Inc , Zoetis Inc Cigna Corp, Fidelity National

Friday: Alibaba Group Holding, Enbridge Inc

Saturday: Berkshire Hathaway


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • 350x200 peter

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • 350x200 althea

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • 350x200 peter

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • 350x200 charu (1)

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • 350x200 ole

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (
Full disclaimer (

Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
Philip Heymans Alle 15

Contact Saxo

Select region


Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank A/S and is not specific to any entity of Saxo Bank Group. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank A/S and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank A/S and thus governed by Danish Law.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.