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Morning Brew June 18 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: FOMC and Middle Eastern tension
Good morning,
Middle eastern tension and rate decision dominate markets
Yesterday, weak US data and fears of an escalation in the middle east raise fears. Oil rose to near 75 USD, equities fell: the S&P 500 dropped 0.8%, the Dow lost 299 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.9%. US retail sales fell 0.9% in May 2025, the largest drop in four months.
Tesla lost 4.3% and Palantir 2.3%.
Interestingly gold is in a holding pattern at 3385 while Silver and Platinum are strong at 37.30 and 1273. The USD Index is 98.65, the 10 year Yields are 4.40.
EURUSD is trading 1.15 , GBPUSD 1.3450 and USDJPY 145. Bitcoin is 105300 and eth 2530.
Donald Trump continues to make headlines as he called for an unconditional surrender by Iran, raising fears of a direct US involvement. For now, Israel and Iran continue to execute airstrikes.
Trump also expressed dissatisfaction with the trade-deal negotiations with Japan and the EU.
Heading into the FOMC decision, rate traders are certain no change will happen today. The probability is at 98% for no action. The year end rate is seen 45 basis points below the current level.
The rate decision will be announced at 20:00 CET followed by the press conference at 20:30.
Tomorrow from a Swiss perspective the key event will be the SNB rate decision with an 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut, the other 30% are in favor of a 50-basis point cut. By September the rate is seen 75 basis points below the current level, either tomorrow or in September a 50-basis point cut is fully expected.
Wednesday
- US Rate Decision
- UK & EU Inflation
- Thursday
- US Holiday
- Switzerland, Sweden UK, Turkey Rate decisions
Friday
- Japan Inflation
- China Rate decision
- UK Retail Sales