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Morning Brew June 15 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Just out: ECB to hold unscheduled meeting to discuss market rout it is believed the interest spreads will be the subject
The probability of a fed hike by 75 Basis points has risen to 90% if calculated based on interest rate futures. Last week we were at 4% and markets are slowly digesting this shift it seems.
The whole US Yield curve shifted higher, the mid-range from 2-10 year is 50 bps above the beginning of the month. This is pulling the USD higher, the USD Index is trading at 105.35 after a high of 105.66, EURUSD is at 1.0425, Cable is testing the 1.20 to the downside 1.1950 could offer some support, then there is little to offer before sub 1.15.
The statement from the BOF that the yen was uncomfortably weak faded away and USDJPY broke above 135. USDCHF is trading above parity
Equities changed relatively little yesterday and are stable overnight, reminding of a dear in the headlights, the S&P fell 0.38%, the Dow gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.
The Dax closed below the 13380 support and thus loos in danger of reaching the 13025 before a close of Mondays gap.
Implied Vol is on the rise with the 1 Month ATM EURUSD Option at above 10% now.
Cryptos remain under pressure and Bitcoin is neat 20k, Gold and Silver are at 1816 and 21.16 waiting for an impulse.
Chinese Data came better than expected. Industrial output rose 0.7% instead of falling by that amount, retail sales “only” fell 6.7% vs a feared7.1%.
All eyes are on the FOMC and Powell’s conference tonight, with the rate released at 20:00 CET and the press conference at 20:30. The fed adjusted rates by more than 1% in the past but that was in the early 80s and we had a fully different level of rates at that time.
The BOE will announce rates tomorrow and for now a hike of 25bps is expected but he probability of a 50BPS hike is rising (currently 45%)
Australia warns inflation is too high, 'decisive' action needed; RBA governor expects CPI to hit 7% by year-end from current 5.1%
This morning at 11, the EU Industrial production will be released at 14:30 the US retail sales but unless there is a real surprise it will not have a dramatic impact.
Thursday: Australian GDP and Employment data over night and US Labor market data
Friday EU CPI and US Industrial production
Friday is also quadruple witching Friday
Fasten your seatbelts and Trade safely, sharp jumps are likely today.