Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning,
Just out: ECB to hold unscheduled meeting to discuss market rout it is believed the interest spreads will be the subject
The probability of a fed hike by 75 Basis points has risen to 90% if calculated based on interest rate futures. Last week we were at 4% and markets are slowly digesting this shift it seems.
The whole US Yield curve shifted higher, the mid-range from 2-10 year is 50 bps above the beginning of the month. This is pulling the USD higher, the USD Index is trading at 105.35 after a high of 105.66, EURUSD is at 1.0425, Cable is testing the 1.20 to the downside 1.1950 could offer some support, then there is little to offer before sub 1.15.
The statement from the BOF that the yen was uncomfortably weak faded away and USDJPY broke above 135. USDCHF is trading above parity
Equities changed relatively little yesterday and are stable overnight, reminding of a dear in the headlights, the S&P fell 0.38%, the Dow gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%.
The Dax closed below the 13380 support and thus loos in danger of reaching the 13025 before a close of Mondays gap.
Implied Vol is on the rise with the 1 Month ATM EURUSD Option at above 10% now.
Cryptos remain under pressure and Bitcoin is neat 20k, Gold and Silver are at 1816 and 21.16 waiting for an impulse.
Chinese Data came better than expected. Industrial output rose 0.7% instead of falling by that amount, retail sales “only” fell 6.7% vs a feared7.1%.
All eyes are on the FOMC and Powell’s conference tonight, with the rate released at 20:00 CET and the press conference at 20:30. The fed adjusted rates by more than 1% in the past but that was in the early 80s and we had a fully different level of rates at that time.
The BOE will announce rates tomorrow and for now a hike of 25bps is expected but he probability of a 50BPS hike is rising (currently 45%)
Australia warns inflation is too high, 'decisive' action needed; RBA governor expects CPI to hit 7% by year-end from current 5.1%
This morning at 11, the EU Industrial production will be released at 14:30 the US retail sales but unless there is a real surprise it will not have a dramatic impact.
Thursday: Australian GDP and Employment data over night and US Labor market data
Friday EU CPI and US Industrial production
Friday is also quadruple witching Friday
Fasten your seatbelts and Trade safely, sharp jumps are likely today.
A new fragmented world order can render some of today's infrastructure obselete, but it also calls for massive new investments across the globe, which requires a new set of strategic and tactical investment strategies.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
As globalisation turns to fragmentation, China seems set on playing a role in the global economy, while simultaneously working towards proofing its own economic situation from external shocks and crises.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The recent bank runs and ensuing challenges are reminicent of something we've seen before. Will it end like the S&L crises of 1986 and 1995?
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Equity markets need to recalibrate to another - fragmented - global world. What's your view on equities in this market - are they going up or down?
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With every development comes new opportunites, some of which could be in India. Have you considered the country as a part of your diversification strategy?
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
A collar is an option strategy that allows some protection while maintaining some upside potential. What investment would you like to use a collar strategy for?
Hans Oudshoorn,
Trainer Academy
There are arguments to be made for many commodities to have upside. Which are you paying the most attention to this quarter?
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
In a very challenging macro environment, which currencies do you think will come out on top?
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy