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Morning Brew February 12 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US CPI and Politics Key
Good Morning
Wallstreet had a fairly slow day yesterday with the large indexes moving less than half a percent at the end of the day. Volumes were relatively high though at 15.4 billion shares traded vs a 20 day average of 14.9.
Most interesting stocks were:
- Apple announcing a joint venture with Alibaba to develop AI for IPhones in China
- Coca Cola on strong earnings
- Tesla giving up another 6% without clear driver
- Dupont raising guidance and ending the day 7% higher
- Softbank suffered a loss of €2.4 bio in the last quarter
The GER40 index rose to 22,100, defying Germany's political and economic challenges. Jerome Powell maintained his stance to keep stable rates given steady employment and inflation. Ten-year yields are at 4.54, and the USD index is at 108.02. EURUSD increased to 1.0360, GBPUSD to 1.2445, and USDJPY to 153.55. Gold dropped from 2943 to 2895, while Silver rebounded to 31.90 after falling to 31.25.
Today, the US CPI is expected between at 2.9% 2.5% and 3%, and the core cpi at 3.1%.
Focus will also be on potential reciprocal tariffs by Team Trump and plans to reduce government employees. Tensions in the Middle East continue as Hamas pauses hostage releases, and Israel threatens to end the ceasefire. Donald Trump has requested Jordan to accept Gaza refugees.
Jacob wrote a great piece on Tesla yesterday
- Tesla’s market share is slipping across key regions – sales have plunged in Europe, China, and California, while competitors like BYD and Volkswagen are gaining ground.
- Elon Musk’s political controversies are becoming a liability – Tesla’s brand favorability is at an all-time low, and his polarising views are alienating core customers, particularly in environmentally conscious markets.
- Tesla remains the worst-performing stock in the ‘Magnificent Seven’ – down 25% from its December peak, yet still trading at a higher valuation than its peers, raising concerns about further downside before a potential rebound.
Trade safely and be ready for bursts of volatility at any point in time.
Key events this week:
- Wednesday: US CPI. Earnings; Barrick, Biogen, Reddit, Robinhood, The Trade Desk, Cisco. J. Powell speaks.
- Thursday: Germany Inflation, UK GDP, US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI. Earnings; John Deere, Sony, Coinbase, Airbnb, Roku.
- Friday: EU GDP, US Import Prices & Retail Sales.