Morning Brew December 22 2023
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Heading into 2024
Welcome to the last morning brew of 2023 – I will be off until January 3rd and hope for a quiet and peaceful holiday season and start to 2024 for all of you .
We are looking at important data releases today with the UK GDP& Retail Sales as well as the German Import Prices and the Swedish CPI. At 14:30 the US PCE Price Index and Durable Goods orders will be released, ahead of the University of Michigan sentiment.
What to watch our for:
Core PCE M/M 0.2%
Core PCE Y/Y 3.3%
PCE M/M 0.0%
PCE Y/Y 2.8%
University of Michigan: 69.4%
Yesterday, equities recovered most f the losses suffered on Wednesday with the Dow up 0.87%, the S&P 1.03% and the Nasdaq 1.26%. Volumes were below average and I would expect liquidity to dry up significantly after the news releases today.
US EV companies rose on news the US may impose trade barriers against Chinese electronic vehicles. Tesla added 3%.
After hours, Nike slashed its guidance, the stock fell to 108.21 after hours -more than 10% below the official close.
Ten year yields are below 3.9% and the USD Index fell to below 102 to trade at 101.87. EURUSD is testing the 1.10 as I write this, GBPUSD 1.2685, USDJPY 142.30 and Gold and Silver are strong at 2048 and 24.34.
Oil is worth watching as there can be expected meaningful news at any point in time: Angola announced departing OPEC and more shipping lines have announced to avoid the Red Sea
The Vix Index jumped nearly 30% on Wednesday and nearly held the level yesterday.
For the next few days, trade carefully on low liquidity and a high risk of news driven moves. Consider options for speculative positions and avoid FX rolls over the year end
Trade safely and I am looking forward to great discussions next year