Weekly market recap and what's ahead

10 March 2025 (recap 3 to 7 March 2025)

Key Takeaways

• Equities faced sharp declines as Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, hitting auto and tech stocks before a late-week relief rally.
• VIX volatility spiked to 26.35 midweek before easing to 23.37 (-6.03%) by Friday.
• Bitcoin dropped to $88.3K (-4.8%), as Trump’s crypto reserve plan underwhelmed investors.
• US 10-year yield dipped below 4.25%, while German Bund yields surged 40bps on fiscal expansion plans.
• Gold held near $2,900, crude oil declined below $70 amid weak China data.
• EURUSD broke above 1.0800, while USDJPY tested cycle lows as bond market support lifted the yen.

Market Recap (3 to 7 March 2025)

Equities

Markets were volatile as Trump’s tariff confirmation triggered global reactions (Market Quick Take – March 4). The S&P 500 fell 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.6%, led by Nvidia (-8.7%) and Tesla (-4.4%), which suffered on weak China sales (Market Quick Take – March 5). Auto stocks slumped initially but rebounded late in the week after Trump delayed auto tariffs (Market Quick Take – March 6).

In Europe, defense stocks surged after Germany announced a €500B infrastructure and defense spending plan (Market Quick Take – March 6). The DAX gained 3.5%, with Airbus (+5.8%) and Commerzbank (+11%) among top performers. The STOXX 50 rose 1.9%, supported by expectations of EU fiscal stimulus (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Asian stocks were mixed. The Nikkei fell 2.1%, and the Hang Seng lost 1.82%, impacted by trade fears (Market Quick Take – March 5). However, Chinese equities found support after China reaffirmed its 5% GDP growth target and introduced new AI and tech sector stimulus (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Volatility

Market volatility soared midweek, with the VIX reaching 26.35 before retreating to 23.37 (-6.03%) as sentiment improved (Market Quick Take – March 7). Short-term volatility spiked, with VIX1D rising 40.8% to 31.13, reflecting continued uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 7). While stabilization occurred late in the week, traders remain cautious about further policy developments.

Digital Assets

The cryptocurrency market struggled, with Bitcoin dropping 4.8% to $88.3K (Market Quick Take – March 7). Ethereum fell 5.1%, while XRP lost 5.9%. Crypto ETFs saw record outflows, and Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan failed to excite investors (Market Quick Take – March 7). However, MicroStrategy (+12.1%) and Coinbase (+4.7%) gained, benefitting from increased trading activity (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Fixed Income

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.25%, reflecting investor concerns about trade disruptions and potential Fed policy shifts (Market Quick Take – March 7). Meanwhile, German Bund yields surged 40bps to 2.84%, their highest weekly close since 2011, as Germany proposed large-scale fiscal expansion (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Japanese 10-year JGB yields climbed to 1.57%, a 15-year high, driven by inflation concerns and global bond market trends (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Commodities

Gold remained near $2,900, supported by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 7). Crude oil prices declined below $70, as weak China data and trade war concerns weighed on demand outlooks (Market Quick Take – March 10). Copper prices surged, maintaining a 10% premium over London markets, as supply concerns grew due to trade restrictions (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Currencies

EURUSD surged above 1.0800 as Germany and the EU prepared for major fiscal expansion (Market Quick Take – March 6).

USDJPY tested cycle lows (147.40) before a slight rebound, while USDCAD strengthened near 1.4350 following Mark Carney’s election as Canada’s new Prime Minister (Market Quick Take – March 7).

Looking Ahead (10 to 14 March 2025)

The coming week will focus on key inflation data and earnings reports:

• Monday: Oracle reports earnings.
• Wednesday: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb) – key inflation reading.
• Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Feb), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 8).
• Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (March), Li Auto (LI) earnings.
• Earnings Spotlight: Adobe (Wednesday), Ulta Beauty & Dollar General (Thursday).

Markets will be watching the CPI report closely for signs of inflation trends, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy (Market Quick Take – March 10). Additionally, retail earnings from Ulta Beauty and Dollar General could provide insights into consumer spending amid trade uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 10).

With tariffs, inflation data, and Fed policy signals in focus, investors should brace for continued volatility in the week ahead.