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Quick Take Europe

Weekly market recap and what's ahead - 10 March 2025

Macro 3 minutes to read
Koen Hoorelbeke
Koen Hoorelbeke

Investment and Options Strategist

Weekly market recap and what's ahead

10 March 2025 (recap 3 to 7 March 2025)

Key Takeaways

  • Equities faced sharp declines as Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, hitting auto and tech stocks before a late-week relief rally.
  • VIX volatility spiked to 26.35 midweek before easing to 23.37 (-6.03%) by Friday.
  • Bitcoin dropped to $88.3K (-4.8%), as Trump’s crypto reserve plan underwhelmed investors.
  • US 10-year yield dipped below 4.25%, while German Bund yields surged 40bps on fiscal expansion plans.
  • Gold held near $2,900, crude oil declined below $70 amid weak China data.
  • EURUSD broke above 1.0800, while USDJPY tested cycle lows as bond market support lifted the yen.

Market Recap (3 to 7 March 2025)

Equities

Markets were volatile as Trump’s tariff confirmation triggered global reactions (Market Quick Take – March 4). The S&P 500 fell 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2.6%, led by Nvidia (-8.7%) and Tesla (-4.4%), which suffered on weak China sales (Market Quick Take – March 5). Auto stocks slumped initially but rebounded late in the week after Trump delayed auto tariffs (Market Quick Take – March 6).

In Europe, defense stocks surged after Germany announced a €500B infrastructure and defense spending plan (Market Quick Take – March 6). The DAX gained 3.5%, with Airbus (+5.8%) and Commerzbank (+11%) among top performers. The STOXX 50 rose 1.9%, supported by expectations of EU fiscal stimulus (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Asian stocks were mixed. The Nikkei fell 2.1%, and the Hang Seng lost 1.82%, impacted by trade fears (Market Quick Take – March 5). However, Chinese equities found support after China reaffirmed its 5% GDP growth target and introduced new AI and tech sector stimulus (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Volatility

Market volatility soared midweek, with the VIX reaching 26.35 before retreating to 23.37 (-6.03%) as sentiment improved (Market Quick Take – March 7). Short-term volatility spiked, with VIX1D rising 40.8% to 31.13, reflecting continued uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 7). While stabilization occurred late in the week, traders remain cautious about further policy developments.

Digital Assets

The cryptocurrency market struggled, with Bitcoin dropping 4.8% to $88.3K (Market Quick Take – March 7). Ethereum fell 5.1%, while XRP lost 5.9%. Crypto ETFs saw record outflows, and Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan failed to excite investors (Market Quick Take – March 7). However, MicroStrategy (+12.1%) and Coinbase (+4.7%) gained, benefitting from increased trading activity (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Fixed Income

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.25%, reflecting investor concerns about trade disruptions and potential Fed policy shifts (Market Quick Take – March 7). Meanwhile, German Bund yields surged 40bps to 2.84%, their highest weekly close since 2011, as Germany proposed large-scale fiscal expansion (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Japanese 10-year JGB yields climbed to 1.57%, a 15-year high, driven by inflation concerns and global bond market trends (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Commodities

Gold remained near $2,900, supported by safe-haven demand amid economic uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 7). Crude oil prices declined below $70, as weak China data and trade war concerns weighed on demand outlooks (Market Quick Take – March 10). Copper prices surged, maintaining a 10% premium over London markets, as supply concerns grew due to trade restrictions (Market Quick Take – March 6).

Currencies

EURUSD surged above 1.0800 as Germany and the EU prepared for major fiscal expansion (Market Quick Take – March 6).

USDJPY tested cycle lows (147.40) before a slight rebound, while USDCAD strengthened near 1.4350 following Mark Carney’s election as Canada’s new Prime Minister (Market Quick Take – March 7).

Looking Ahead (10 to 14 March 2025)

The coming week will focus on key inflation data and earnings reports:

  • Monday: Oracle reports earnings.
  • Wednesday: U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Feb) – key inflation reading.
  • Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI) (Feb), Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 8).
  • Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (March), Li Auto (LI) earnings.
  • Earnings Spotlight: Adobe (Wednesday), Ulta Beauty & Dollar General (Thursday).

Markets will be watching the CPI report closely for signs of inflation trends, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy (Market Quick Take – March 10). Additionally, retail earnings from Ulta Beauty and Dollar General could provide insights into consumer spending amid trade uncertainty (Market Quick Take – March 10).

With tariffs, inflation data, and Fed policy signals in focus, investors should brace for continued volatility in the week ahead.

For more related content about last week's event, see:
Key stories from the past week
Market Quick Take - 10 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 7 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 6 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 5 March 2025
Market Quick Take - 4 March 2025
    For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

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