Access all our platforms from a single account.
Asia Market Quick Take – 30 October, 2026
Key points:
- Macro: ECB holds rates. US headline PCE and Core PCE rise.
- Equities: Intel fell 18% in after hours on weak outlook, Amazon –6% on high capex
- FX: Canadian dollar set for best monthly gain since April
- Commodities: Gold under pressure near $4,000 and silver breaks $52
- Fixed income: Treasuries rally on haven demand as curve bull steepens
------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.
Macro:
- The ECB kept rates unchanged in October 2026, warning high energy prices could fuel inflation and hurt growth, while underlying inflation is stable. The move followed reports President Lagarde plans to step down early; she said a hike was discussed but unanimously rejected.
- The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September 2026, the fastest in six months, driven by higher energy costs. Core PCE was up 0.3%. Year-on-year, headline PCE reached 3.6% and core 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.
- The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2026, the fastest in a year and above forecasts. Growth was driven by a surge in private investment, strong consumer spending, higher government outlays, and inventory gains, while housing investment fell and net trade weighed on GDP.
- US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24, 2026, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims dropped to 1.701 million, the lowest in over three years, underscoring a strong labor market.
- Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 2.7% in September. The BoJ’s preferred core measure slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, below forecasts, after it raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest since 1995.
- Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September 2026 from 2.5%, with employment up, participation at 64.5%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rising to 1.19, indicating a tighter labor market.
- Japan’s retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year in September 2026, the slowest in three months and below forecasts, led by a jump in motor vehicle sales. Month-on-month, sales fell 0.7%, a second consecutive decline.
Equities:
- US — US equities snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday as Alphabet plunged ~13% — its worst session on record — after Q3 ad and search revenue disappointed, wiping over $395bn in market cap. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% to 29,402, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720, and the Dow shed 0.3% to 52,343. Defensive sectors — healthcare, real estate, and consumer staples — outperformed. Caterpillar fell ~10% on modest earnings. After hours, Intel plunged ~18% on a weak Q4 outlook, Amazon dropped ~6% on elevated capex, negative free cash flow of $42.4b in past 12 months and slowing e-commerce growth, while Starbucks slipped ~1.7% despite a US comp beat, weighed by international weakness.
- EU — European equities outperformed global peers on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.8% to 649.11, the DAX gaining 1.3% to 26,040, the CAC 40 up 1.1% to 7,970, and the FTSE 100 adding 0.3% to 10,722. Upbeat corporate earnings and Iran peace deal reports drove sentiment. Kongsberg surged 13% in Stockholm. Novartis rose 2.4% and Sandoz gained 4.4% in Zurich. Adidas led the DAX with a 5.8% advance. Haleon plunged as much as 14% in London — its worst day since its 2022 listing — after cutting its organic sales growth outlook due to a China regulatory change halting Centrum vitamin sales.
- Asia — Asian markets face a difficult open Friday, led by a sharp selloff in South Korea. The Kospi fell ~3.1% to 5,749 at the open, with tech-heavy names bearing the brunt of the AI earnings fallout from Intel and Amazon. Nikkei 225 futures also pointed lower, with AI infrastructure suppliers such as Lasertec and Ibiden under pressure following Intel's post-market slump. The Hang Seng (22,959) faces headwinds from mainland Chinese investors pulling back at the fastest pace in over five years — net HK$24bn in outflows in October through Thursday. BYD missed Q3 profit estimates despite overseas sales more than doubling, dampening hopes for a recovery in China auto stocks. Geely also failed to reassure investors on its European export outlook. The STI (5,396) and ASX 200 (up ~0.8% in early trade) are relatively better positioned, with Australian banks benefiting from a defensive rotation.
Earnings this week:
- Friday: Chevron, ExxonMobil, China Construction Bank, Kweichow Moutai, CNOOC, ICBC, Bank of China, Sands China, Panasonic
FX:
- USDJPY holds around 157.88, little changed on the day, as markets await the BOJ rate decision. The yen remains off its 52-week high of 163.87, with the BOJ widely expected to hold rates steady today.
- The Mexican peso was among the worst-performing EM currencies on Thursday, falling ~1.2% to 18.86 per dollar, driven by broad risk aversion and a flight to US bonds amid the tech-led equity selloff.
- The Australian dollar softened to 0.7027 against the USD, down on the week despite robust domestic inflation data that makes an RBA rate hike next week a near-certainty. Risk-off sentiment from the US tech selloff is overriding the hawkish domestic backdrop.
- The Canadian dollar is on track for its best monthly gain since April, up ~1.9% in October, supported by elevated oil prices and the Bank of Canada's shift toward tighter monetary policy. USDCAD was last around 1.3965.
- EURUSD trades around 1.1181, broadly stable. Citi lowered its 3-month EURUSD forecast to 1.105 from 1.135, citing European tail risks, a widening rate differential favouring the USD, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions.
Commodities:
- Gold fell ~1.3% on Thursday to around $4,022/oz, reversing three days of modest gains after the Fed held rates and offered limited forward guidance, leaving open the prospect of a December hike. JPMorgan Private Bank sees further downside risk, expecting the Fed to hike in December and again in Q1 2027, with 10-year yields potentially peaking at 5.25–5.50% mid-2027. This morning spot gold fell 0.2% to $4,012.47 an ounce, silver slid 0.4% to $51.94 and is down about 14% this month, while platinum and palladium also edged lower.
- WTI crude settled at $102.00/bbl (-$0.78) and Brent at $114.88/bbl (-$0.44), easing on reports that the Trump administration is engaged in negotiations toward a temporary peace deal with Iran. Lower oil prices are providing some relief to inflation concerns and supporting the Treasury rally.
Fixed income:
- Treasuries rallied sharply as the tech-led equity selloff drove haven demand. The 2-year yield fell ~10bps to 4.60%, the 10-year fell ~4bps to 4.94%, and the 30-year eased to 5.30%, with the curve bull-steepening. The 5s30s spread widened to ~52.7bps.
- The US Treasury's $44bn 7-year note auction was awarded at 4.894%, matching the when-issued yield exactly (stopping on the screws), with a bid-to-cover of 2.46 — above the prior auction's 2.42. Indirect bidder takedown was 57.77%, the highest in recent months, signalling solid demand.
- Japanese government bond futures are firmer ahead of the BOJ decision, with JGBs benefiting from a bonds-stocks rebalancing as macro traders turn defensive. Australian and New Zealand bonds also rallied, tracking Treasuries. UK gilts rose for a second consecutive day, led by the short end, aided by lower oil and gas prices.
For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.
This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.