Market Quick Take - Alphabet revenue miss spooks markets - 29 October 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: The Fed held with hawkish dissents while Canada hiked and Britain kept its fiscal rules
• Equities: US equities edged higher after the Fed held rates, Europe finished flat, Asia turned mixed as AI earnings divided investors.
• Volatility: Index gauges eased after the Fed hold while front futures rose overnight on tech earnings
• Digital Assets: Miners and crypto equities firmed in the session while tokens slipped overnight
• Commodities: Oil dips on Iran diplomacy, gas prices soar while gold remains under pressure
• Fixed Income: US front-end yields fall on slightly dovish impressions from post-FOMC Fed Chair Warsh press conference
• Currencies: US dollar retreats on FOMC, but erases losses early Thursday, although JPY held firmer.

Macro

• The FOMC voted 10–2 to leave the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%, while Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation under control but offered little guidance on December. His carefully calibrated remarks nevertheless suggested a modest dovish shift within the committee, prompting markets to scale back tightening expectations to just two fully priced rate hikes over the next 12 months, with growing doubts about a December move. Warsh also indicated that the Fed is likely to reduce the number of scheduled policy meetings from eight to six annually, with one meeting removed in 2027 and a further two in 2028. The combination of a less hawkish policy outlook and proposed changes to the meeting schedule contributed to a steepening of the US Treasury yield curve.
• The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate 25 bps to 2.5% in October 2026, its first hike in three years, to curb broader inflation pressures from high energy prices. It signaled possible further increases but urged caution, noting inflation is higher and more persistent than in July. CPI is now seen averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% by mid-2028, with growth projected at 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027–28.
• UK Chancellor John Healey’s first budget upheld fiscal rules, with the OBR estimating £15bn of headroom in 2029–30. Measures include energy bill relief, smaller bank tax hikes, tariff suspensions on 100+ supermarket goods, a 3.9% minimum wage rise, and £20.4bn more for the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank. The OBR cut its 2027 growth forecast to 1%, raised 2026 to 1.2%, and lifted borrowing and debt projections.
• The US goods deficit widened to $134.9 billion in September 2026, the largest since March 2025 and above the $130 billion forecast, as imports rose 2.4% to a record $344.15 billion and exports increased 2.6% to $209.24 billion.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0930 – UK Sept Mortgage Approvals
• 1000 – Eurozone October Consumer Confidence
• 1230 – US Sep. PCE inflation
• 1230 – US 3Q GDP (First estimate)
• 1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
• 1315 – ECB Rate Decision
• 1700 – US Treasury to auction 7-year notes
• 2330 – Japan Tokyo Oct. CPI
• Friday 0230-0330 (approximately) – Japan Bank of Japan decision and statement
• Friday 0630 – Bank of Japan Governor Ueda press conference

Earnings events

• Thursday: Amazon.com, Eli Lilly, Samsung, Mastercard, Intel, Merck, Caterpillar, Shell, Linde, TotalEnergies, Gilead Sciences, SanDisk, Starbucks, Monster Beverage
• Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,743.98, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, and the Dow added 0.2% after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, although two policymakers voted for a hike. Oracle surged 10.7% after projecting $30 billion in annual free cash flow by fiscal 2029, reassuring investors about its AI spending, while Boston Scientific fell 5.8% after cutting its outlook following a cyberattack. After the close, Alphabet slumped around 10% on disappointing revenue and negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion, while Microsoft gained almost 3% as Azure cloud revenue grew 48%, beating expectations.
• Europe: European equities finished broadly flat, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1% to 644.14, the DAX gaining 0.4%, and the FTSE 100 edging 0.1% higher as investors assessed earnings and the UK budget ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank decision. Barclays rose 1.6% after the UK government's increase in the bank surcharge proved smaller than feared, while Stellantis surged 15.6% in Milan after better-than-expected quarterly revenue and reaffirmed guidance. Genmab jumped 29.1% after reporting positive late-stage trial results for a head-and-neck cancer treatment, while Logitech dropped 10.8% as concerns over future profit margins overshadowed stronger-than-expected earnings.
• Asia: Asian equities traded mixed on Thursday, with South Korea's Kospi falling around 1.5% in afternoon trading after Wednesday's 6.6% rally, while Japan's Nikkei edged higher and Hong Kong was little changed as AI earnings unsettled sentiment. Samsung Electronics dropped around 4% despite record earnings, as investors were disappointed by the absence of stronger shareholder returns, while SK Hynix showed greater resilience after surging 10.9% on Wednesday following record profits and a substantial shareholder payout announcement. Mainland Chinese shares also weakened as concerns over AI valuations weighed on sentiment. Attention now turns to Amazon and Intel earnings and the European Central Bank's policy decision.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 16.91 | VIX FUTURES: 19.000 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (148.74) | MARKET REGIME: LOW VOL BULL | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Traders sold index protection after the Fed hold and kept paying for single-stock risk, and the after-hours tape rewarded that split. The VIX fell to 16.91 while the one-day gauge rose about 5% to 13.15, pricing roughly 0.8% for today's GDP, PCE and ECB session. Dispersion climbed to its highest close in seven sessions as SKEW eased, a bet on megacap earnings gaps rather than an index-wide shock, and Alphabet's after-hours drop of about 10% delivered one.
• The October VIX contract has expired, so the 3 November midterm now sits inside spot VIX, which trades almost two points below November futures. MOVE fell to 94.55, confirming calmer rates vol, though front futures rose 2.16% overnight to 19.000.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~79,731 -1.85% | ETHEREUM ~2,305 -2.19% | IBIT 46.14 +0.96% | ETHA 53.60 +1.07% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Bitcoin miners traded on AI capacity again on Wednesday, gaining between 4.8% and 6.6% as the chip rally sparked by SK Hynix's sold-out memory outlook spilled into data-centre names. The tokens then slipped overnight with Nasdaq futures after Alphabet's results, taking bitcoin back below USD 80,000 and ether to about USD 2,305, with XRP and Solana both down about 2.7%.
• Strategy shareholders approved daily dividends on its preferred stock, with STRC's first daily record date on 1 November, ahead of tonight's results from Strategy and Coinbase.
• Fund flows split again: bitcoin ETFs took in USD 176.0m on Tuesday, led by IBIT, while ether funds lost USD 60.2m as ETHA redemptions continued.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent trades softer, slipping back below USD 114 amid signs of intensified diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict. Reports suggest Vice President JD Vance has contacted Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s top security body, while President Trump confirmed to Axios that negotiations were underway. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also reiterated Tehran’s openness to diplomacy. However, significant obstacles remain, limiting the reaction across crude and refined-product markets, particularly given Trump’s repeated warnings that military operations against Iran could resume after the US midterm elections, potentially alongside Israel. Meanwhile, crude exports remain near pre-war levels, while supplies of refined products and, especially, LNG continue to face severe disruption.
• Natural gas/LNG: With Qatar's LNG production still largely offline and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz facing elevated risks, competition between Europe and Asia for seaborne supplies continues to intensify. European gas prices have surged 250% year-to-date, while Asian LNG prices are up 237%, both trading above USD 30 per MMBtu. European TTF briefly exceeded EUR 100 per MWh on Wednesday for the first time since 2022, raising concerns ahead of the peak winter demand period, not least considering European inventories are more than 100 standard-sized LNG cargoes below recent years.
• Gold trades weaker around USD 4025 after staging a modest rebound during the Asian session as traders digest a data-dependent Fed outlook. The tug of war between short-term momentum sellers and longer-term accumulators continues, leaving prices directionless amid concerns over elevated energy prices, AI-related equity weakness, bond yields and the dollar. Focus remains on a key area of support below USD 4000 while a break above USD 4,070 and subsequently USD 4,230 to force a change in the prevailing sentiment.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The US Treasury yield curve steepened Wednesday in the wake of the FOMC statement release and Warsh press conference. This was despite the two hawkish dissenting voices in favour of a rate hike rather than standing pat on the current policy rate. The new policy statement offered little of note, but the Warsh press conference saw the Fed Chair pushing back against characterising the US economy as overheating, saying that productivity increases could allow faster growth without accompanying inflation. He also said that the September rate hike was already working and he rejected the idea that the Fed needed to engineer a growth slowdown by obstructing economic activity or causing job losses to lower inflation The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield dropped back about six basis points, mostly during the Warsh presser, to near 4.70% and fell slightly further in early trading Thursday, while the 10-year treasury yield was mostly steady just above 5.01% by early Thursday after chopping somewhat higher ahead of the FOMC meeting.
• Germany’s short-dated yields rose to the top of the recent range Wednesday ahead of today’s ECB meeting, with the benchmark 2-year Schatz trading near 3.13% on the close and up over four basis points on the day. The market is still pricing the ECB to not hike at today’s meeting, but is looking for high odds of a rate hike at the December meeting, while further hiking is seen unlikely until March of next year or later.

Currencies

• The US dollar weakened slightly in the slightly dovish impression left by the FOMC meeting late Wednesday, but firmed again overnight in Asian trading hours, perhaps in part on risk sentiment weakening on tech stock concerns linked to Alphabet and Samsung earnings reports. EURUSD trade 1.1140 early Thursday ahead of the ECB meeting later in the day after matching its 17-month low Wednesday at 1.1113.
• The retreat in short-date US treasury yields helped punch the USDJPY and other JPY crosses back lower. USDJPY squeezed as high as 158.35 Wednesday before retreating back below 158.00 ahead of this Friday’s Bank of Japan meeting. The highs on Wednesday came close to the critical 158.50 area that has mostly capped the price action in USDJPY (near the 200-day moving average and other technically important levels) in recent weeks as traders eye the risk of official Japanese intervention that has come on multiple occasions in recent months.
• There was little drama in sterling pairs Wednesday on the Autumn Budget announcement from UK Chancellor Healey, which observers felt was credible enough in allowing enough “ceiling” to avoid any fiscal stability concerns. EURGBP remains near the 17-month cycle low, trading early 0.8366 early Thursday.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis