Market Quick Take - Now Amazon and Intel spook US tech - 30 October 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Bank of Japan raises inflation forecasts, says 2% inflation target reached
• Equities: Alphabet's record drop hit US stocks Thursday and AI-earnings worries have spread to Asia, while Europe held up better.
• Volatility: Front VIX futures held above spot overnight while Nasdaq futures fell after the results
• Digital Assets: Crypto equities fell with tech while Binance confirmed a major hack and froze funds
• Commodities: Oil holds firm, silver slides as commodities see major sector rotation in October
• Fixed Income: Yields drop on tech stock sell-off and despite strong US growth data
• Currencies: JPY choppy after Bank of Japan meeting. USD drops.

Macro

• The ECB kept rates unchanged in October 2026, warning high energy prices could fuel inflation and hurt growth, while underlying inflation is stable and second round effects are not a concern. The move followed reports President Lagarde plans to step down early; she said a hike was discussed but unanimously rejected.
• The Bank of Japan left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% as widely expected and raised its core inflation forecasts for fiscal 2027 by 0.2% to 2.6% from 2.4% and now says that it considers underlying inflation to have risen to be broadly consistent with its 2% target. The bank maintained guidance for further rate hikes as the market awaits Governor Ueda’s press conference this (Friday) morning.
• The US PCE price index rose 0.5% in September 2026, the fastest in six months, driven by higher energy costs. Core PCE was up 0.3% month-on-month. Year-on-year, headline PCE reached 3.6% and core 3.1%, both above the Fed’s 2% target.
• The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3 2026, the fastest in a year and above forecasts. Growth was driven by a surge in private investment, strong consumer spending, higher government outlays, and inventory gains, while housing investment fell and net trade weighed on GDP.
• US initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 194,000 in the week ending October 24, 2026, near multi-decade lows. Continuing claims dropped to 1.701 million, the lowest in over three years, underscoring a strong labor market.
• Tokyo core consumer prices rose 2.6% year-on-year in October 2026, down from 2.7% in September. The BoJ’s preferred core measure slowed to 2.4% from 2.7%, below forecasts, after it raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, the highest since 1995.
• Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September 2026 from 2.5% in August, with employment up, participation at 64.5%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio rising to 1.19, indicating a tighter labor market.
• Japan’s retail sales rose 2.3% year-on-year in September 2026, the slowest in three months and below forecasts, led by a jump in motor vehicle sales. Month-on-month, sales fell 0.7%, a second consecutive decline.

More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0745 – France Oct. Flash CPI
• 0800 – Spain Oct. Flash CPI
• 0855 – Germany Oct. Unemployment Rate / Change
• 0900 – Germany Q3 GDP estimate
• 1000 – Eurozone Q3 GDP estimate
• 1000 – Italy Flash Oct. CPI
• 1230 – Canada Aug. and Q3 GDP
• 1300 – Germany Oct. Flash CPI
• 1345 – Germany Oct. Chicago PMI

Earnings events

• Friday: ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, AstraZeneca, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia, BP, General Dynamics.

Top highlights for next week:

• Monday: Apple, Palantir
• Tuesday: AMD
• Wednesday: Novo Nordisk

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US: Equities snapped a three-day winning streak. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4% to 29,402, the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% to 7,720 and the Dow lost 0.3% to 52,343. Caterpillar fell nearly 10% on modest earnings. After hours, Intel dropped about 23% on a weak Q4 outlook. Amazon fell about 7% on elevated capex, negative free cash flow of $42.4bn over the past 12 months and slowing e-commerce growth. Starbucks slipped about 1.7% as international weakness outweighed a US comp beat.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 0.8% to 649.11, the DAX gained 1.3% to 26,040, the CAC 40 added 1.1% to 7,970 and the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 10,722. Kongsberg jumped 13%, Adidas rose 5.8%, Sandoz gained 4.4% and Novartis 2.4%. Haleon fell as much as 15%, its worst day since listing in 2022, after cutting its organic growth outlook because a China regulatory change halted Centrum vitamin sales.
• Asia: The open looks tough. The Kospi fell about 4.5% to 5,662 as tech names took the brunt of the Intel and Amazon fallout. Nikkei futures point lower, with AI infrastructure suppliers such as Lasertec and Ibiden under pressure. The Hang Seng faces headwinds from mainland investors pulling back at the fastest pace in over five years, with net outflows of HK$24bn in October through Thursday. BYD missed Q3 profit estimates despite overseas sales more than doubling, and Geely did not reassure on its European export outlook.

More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Volatility

VIX 17.20 | VIX FUTURES: 19.210 (Nov) | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (151.03) | MARKET REGIME: TRANSITIONING | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Thursday's damage was concentrated in large tech, and options markets priced it that way. The VIX rose only modestly to 17.20 while Nasdaq vol jumped almost 6%. After Intel and Amazon disappointed after the close, the front VIX future moved above December overnight. That inverts the front of the curve and leaves the November contract, which spans the 9 December Fed decision, carrying a building hump for hike risk. Implied dispersion eased as megacap earnings premium drained away, while SKEW firmed.
• Options price about 0.64% for today and 1.64% into 6 November, a window holding Apple, the 3 November vote and payrolls. MOVE eased as Treasuries rallied, so rates vol did not confirm the equity stress.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~77,964 +0.08% | ETHEREUM ~2,231 -0.87% | IBIT 45.71 -0.93% | ETHA 52.78 -1.53% | AS OF ~05:00 CET

• Forced selling did the work overnight. Bitcoin dipped below USD 77,000 before steadying after Binance confirmed a major hack and froze more than USD 2.5bn of affected funds, and leveraged longs took most of the liquidations.
• The listed names had already turned lower with tech on Thursday. AI-exposed miners fell hardest, Iren and Cipher Digital each losing close to 9%, as Alphabet's capital spending revived doubts about hyperscaler demand for their data-centre capacity.
• Strategy and Coinbase reported after the close: both beat on profit through crypto revaluation gains while revenue fell short, and Strategy announced its CFO is stepping down. Ether funds shed about USD 105m, a fourth straight outflow.

Commodities

• Oil: Brent is heading for another weekly gain, ending an already strong month on a firm note near USD 116.50. Prices remain supported by concerns that the US could resume military strikes against Iran after the midterm elections, raising the risk of renewed escalation and supply disruptions. This comes despite separate reports of ongoing US-Iran negotiations aimed at securing a temporary peace agreement, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical outlook.
• Precious metals: Silver continues to underperform gold, touching a fresh 11-month low below USD 51 and fully retracing its December–January rally. Despite oversold conditions, the risk of further long liquidation and momentum-driven selling remains. With gold holding above key support around USD 3,970, the XAUXAG ratio has climbed above 78, highlighting silver's relative weakness. Meanwhile, gold continues to attract demand from investors less sensitive to interest rate developments. Heading into the weekend, traders will watch whether the US technology sector selloff extends into today's session, potentially triggering broader deleveraging and liquidity-driven selling across markets, including precious metals.
• Commodities: The BCOM Total Return Index trading flat on the month masks a major rotation between sectors. Energy continues to outperform, supported by Middle East supply disruptions, while grains and precious metals have suffered from harvest pressure, rising bond yields and speculative long liquidation. Silver, wheat, corn and US natural gas are among the biggest losers, while crude oil, diesel and sugar lead the gains. The year-to-date reversal is striking, with energy up almost 100% after losing 10% last year, while precious metals are down 11% following an 80% surge in 2025. These contrasting performances highlight the benefits of diversified commodity exposure, given the often dramatic swings across individual markets and sectors.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US treasuries rallied all along the curve and the yield curve steepened Thursday and overnight into Friday on another two marquee tech names spooking risk sentiment in the tech space, even as most US stocks rose Thursday. This was despite the strong US GDP estimate for Q3 and another week of near record low jobless claims data. The benchmark 2-year treasury yield fell ten basis points Thursday to a its lowest since mid-September at 4.60% and fell another two basis points overnight. The benchmark 10-year yield yield fell eight basis points Thursday and bit more early Friday, trading 4.92%.
• Japan’s benchmark 10-year JGB is eying its lowest daily close in almost three months today, trading six basis points lower at 2.78% as the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged Friday, but guided for further policy tightening after raising a key inflation forecast.
• US high yield bonds didn’t enjoy the strength in the US Treasury market. The Bloomberg measure we track of the spread between US high yield bonds and US Treasuries widened 10 basis points to 323 basis points.

Currencies

• The US dollar traded lower Thursday and into early Friday, although it bounced from overnight lows by early trading hours in Europe. The drop in US tech stocks and especially the significant post-FOMC drop in US treasury yields may be the drivers. EURUSD traded 1.1183 early Friday after rising as high as 1.1215 in early hours Friday. Those highs came after touching a new 17-month low briefly at 1.1105 on the ECB announcement Thursday .
• While EURUSD rebounded, the ECB delivered no real surprises Thursday and the Euro remained soft against other European currencies, falling to a new low below 11.00 versus the Swedish krona, and also seeing new local lows versus the Swiss franc, pound sterling and Norwegian krone.
• The JPY saw a choppy session early Friday, surging after plunging global bond yields Thursday failed to support the currency. The Bank of Japan statement guiding for further rate hikes and raising a key inflation forecast failed to support the JPY, which fell back ahead of the Governor Ueda press conference early today (Friday). USDJPY trades 157.63, not much changed from late Thursday levels after dipping as low as 157.12.

More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis