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Technical Update - Most JPY pairs breaking range bound behaviour: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: JPY pairs are breaking their range bound behaviour: USDJPY and AUDJPY higher - all though uptrends are fragile, GBPJPY and CHFJPY lower. Only EURJPY still range bound waiting for break out direction
USDJPY resumed uptrend after closing above 147.87 and has reached 1.382 projection of the latest minor correction at 148.50.
The uptrend is weak however, as indicated by the RSI divergence.
However, RSI has broken its falling trendline thus breaking its falling value trend. That is indicating USDJPY is set for higher levels and a move to the 1.618 projection at 149.19
However, medium-term there is room up to around 152 which is the October 2022 peak.
To reverse the short-term bullish trend a close below 144.40 is needed
EURJPY has been range bound between 156.60 and 159.75 for several weeks by now. Break out is needed for direction.
If RSI can get back above 60 threshold break out is likely to be to the upside. If that scenario plays out a move to 162.50-163 could be seen
The two vertical arrows indicate that if bullish break out EURJPY could move the same distance at the high-low distance of the range.
AUDJPY broke above its falling trendline only to get rejected at the 95.85 resistance. A test of the falling trendline from the upper side is in the cards.
However, with bullish RSI, the 55 and 100 (which is rising) Moving Averages plus the lower rising trendline the support is strong and AUDJPY is likely to bounce
A close above the 95.85 resistance will pave the road to June peak at around 97.67
A close below 93.55 will demolish and reverse the bullish trend likely sending AUDJPY down to strong support at around 91.78 GBPJPY is in a downtrend short term. IF RSI is closing below 40 threshold it will further confirm there bearish picture. Strong support at around 180.25 and 176.25
For GBPJPY to reverse the trend i.e., to uptrend, a close above 186.75 is needed CHFJPY is breaking bearish. If closing below 163.85 downtrend is confirmed. An RSI close below 40 will further confirm the bearish picture.
CHFJPY could be hit by heavy selling down support at around 158.55.
However, there is some support at around 161.80 and the 100 Moving Average will also offer some support.