Technical Update - Most JPY pairs breaking range bound behaviour: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY Technical Update - Most JPY pairs breaking range bound behaviour: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY Technical Update - Most JPY pairs breaking range bound behaviour: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY

Technical Update - Most JPY pairs breaking range bound behaviour: USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  JPY pairs are breaking their range bound behaviour: USDJPY and AUDJPY higher - all though uptrends are fragile, GBPJPY and CHFJPY lower. Only EURJPY still range bound waiting for break out direction


USDJPY resumed uptrend after closing above 147.87 and has reached 1.382 projection of the latest minor correction at 148.50.
The uptrend is weak however, as indicated by the RSI divergence.

However, RSI has broken its falling trendline thus breaking its falling value trend. That is indicating USDJPY is set for higher levels and a move to the 1.618 projection at 149.19

However, medium-term there is room up to around 152 which is the October 2022 peak.

To reverse the short-term bullish trend a close below 144.40 is needed

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

EURJPY has been range bound between 156.60 and 159.75 for several weeks by now. Break out is needed for direction.

If RSI can get back above 60 threshold break out is likely to be to the upside.  If that scenario plays out a move to 162.50-163 could be seen
The two vertical arrows  indicate that if bullish break out EURJPY could move the same distance at the high-low distance of the range.

A close below 156.60 could fuel a sell-off down to 153 area as indicated by the declining arrow

AUDJPY broke above its falling trendline  only to get rejected at the 95.85 resistance. A test of the falling trendline from the upper side is in the cards.
However, with bullish RSI, the 55 and 100 (which is rising) Moving Averages plus the lower rising trendline the support is strong and AUDJPY is likely to bounce

A close above the 95.85 resistance will pave the road to June peak at around 97.67

A close below 93.55 will demolish and reverse the bullish trend likely sending AUDJPY down to strong support at around 91.78

GBPJPY is in a downtrend short term. IF RSI is closing below 40 threshold it will further confirm there bearish picture. Strong support at around 180.25 and 176.25

For GBPJPY to reverse the trend i.e., to uptrend, a close above 186.75 is needed

CHFJPY is breaking bearish. If closing below 163.85 downtrend is confirmed. An RSI close below 40 will further confirm the bearish picture.
CHFJPY could be hit by heavy selling down support at around 158.55.
However, there is some support at around 161.80 and the 100 Moving Average will also offer some support.

A close above 165.20 will demolish the bearish scenario and the bullish trend will resume

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.