Quarterly Outlook
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John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
Saxo Group
Traders buy a strangle when they anticipate significant volatility in the underlying futures contract but are uncertain about the direction of the price movement. This strategy involves purchasing two options:
These options share the same expiration date but have different strike prices. Usually, the call option’s strike price is set higher than the current market price, and the put option’s strike price is set lower—both classified as out-of-the-money (OTM).
Imagine crude oil futures are trading at USD 70 per barrel, and an upcoming OPEC meeting is expected to cause sharp price changes, either upwards or downwards. By buying a strangle, the trader can profit from significant price shifts beyond either strike price, regardless of the direction.
Selling a strangle is the opposite of buying one. This neutral strategy is used when a trader expects the market to remain relatively stable, with minimal price movement in the underlying futures contract. By selling both a call and a put, the trader collects premiums upfront. The strategy becomes profitable if the futures price remains within a defined range—between the two strike prices—by expiration.
Suppose wheat futures are trading in a predictable range with no upcoming events, such as weather disruptions or economic reports, that are likely to disturb the market. By selling a strangle, the trader bets on prices remaining stable.
When deciding on a trading strategy, it is helpful to compare the strangle with other related approaches. These strategies each have unique advantages and risks, which may suit different market expectations.
A straddle involves buying or selling a call and a put option with the same strike price and expiration date. Straddles generally have higher premiums compared to strangles but create narrower breakeven points. Traders opt for a straddle when they expect a significant price move in either direction but want a lower breakeven range compared to a strangle. A strangle is typically cheaper because the options have different strike prices. This lowers the upfront cost but widens the breakeven range, requiring larger price movements to profit.
An iron condor is a modified version of a strangle that caps potential losses by combining it with additional options. This strategy involves selling a strangle and simultaneously buying a second strangle with narrower strike prices. The advantages of the Iron Condor is that it limits the maximum loss by defining the risk range. It is a popular choice for traders who expect low volatility but want to avoid the unlimited risk of selling a naked strangle.
A butterfly spread is another low-risk strategy aimed at profiting from minimal price movement. It uses multiple strike prices to create a range where the trader benefits from stability. Butterfly Spreads are less risky than selling a strangle because potential losses are capped. However, the profit potential is also lower compared to selling a strangle. It suits traders with a strong conviction that prices will remain near a specific range.
A hedged call or put is a delta-neutral strategy that functions similarly to a straddle in terms of cost and breakeven points. The choice between this and a strangle depends on market conditions, expected price ranges, and cost considerations.
The Greeks are crucial for managing and optimising a strangle strategy. They provide insights into how changes in various market conditions may affect the options' value.
Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in the underlying futures price. For a Long Strangle the delta of the call option is positive, while the delta of the put option is negative. Together, their deltas offset each other near the current price, resulting in a delta-neutral position initially. As the underlying price moves, delta becomes more significant for the in-the-money option. For a Short Strangle delta neutrality works against the seller when prices move sharply, leading to potential losses.
Measures how fast delta changes as the underlying price moves. For a Long Strangle high gamma works in favour of long positions, as it amplifies the delta change during significant price movements. Gamma tends to decrease as expiration approaches, reducing the sensitivity of delta to price changes. For a Short Strangle sellers face gamma risk because rapid changes in delta can result in larger-than-expected losses if the underlying price moves significantly.
Measures the sensitivity of an option’s price to changes in implied volatility. For a Long Strangle long positions are highly vega-positive, meaning they gain value when implied volatility rises. This makes the strategy particularly suitable when markets are expected to become more volatile. For a Short Strangle, sellers are vega-negative, meaning they profit when implied volatility decreases. This is beneficial in calmer market conditions where volatility is expected to drop.
represents time decay, the rate at which an option loses value as it approaches expiration. For a Long Strangle theta is negative, meaning the options lose value over time if the underlying price doesn’t move significantly. Time decay works against the buyer, particularly in a low-volatility environment. For a Short Strangle, theta is positive, benefitting the seller as time passes. The closer the options are to expiration, the faster they lose value, allowing sellers to potentially pocket the premiums.
Before employing a strangle strategy, traders must evaluate various factors to ensure the approach aligns with their market outlook and risk tolerance. Below are some critical decisions to consider:
The choice of strike prices has a significant impact on the cost and potential profitability of a strangle. Wider strike prices lower the upfront cost of a long strangle because the options are further out-of-the-money (OTM). However, they require a larger price movement to reach profitability, making the strategy riskier if the market remains stable. Narrower Strike Prices on the other hand increase the cost but improve the likelihood of the underlying price hitting the breakeven points. This may suit traders with a more confident outlook on the extent of the price movement.
Market conditions, particularly option skew and kurtosis, can provide valuable insights for refining a strangle strategy. Option Skew refers to the pricing differences between out-of-the-money calls and puts. Skew indicates whether the market expects upward or downward price movements.
Kurtosis reflects the likelihood of extreme price movements (tail events). Markets with high kurtosis may justify wider strike prices in a strangle to capture potential price extremes. In low-kurtosis markets, narrower strikes may be more appropriate as significant moves are less likely.
Technical analysis can help identify price levels where the underlying asset is likely to encounter support or resistance. Support and resistance zones can serve as guideposts for selecting strike prices. For instance, a trader expecting significant volatility may choose strikes slightly beyond these levels, anticipating that a price breakout could trigger a strong move.
The choice of expiration dates is critical for aligning a strangle strategy with anticipated market events. Traders should align expiration dates with important events like earnings reports, economic announcements, OPEC meetings, or geopolitical developments, which are likely to drive volatility for example, an options expiration that captures a central bank meeting may be ideal for a strangle on currency futures.
Short-term expirations cost less but are more sensitive to time decay (theta). They require rapid price movements to offset the impact of time decay. Longer-term expirations however cost more but provide additional time for significant market movements to materialise.
Traders must compare implied volatility (IV)—the market’s expectation of future price swings—with realised volatility (RV), which measures actual past price movements.
A narrow IV-RV spread suggests the market expects lower volatility. In this case, buying a strangle may not be ideal, as low volatility reduces the likelihood of significant price movement. A wide IV-RV spread indicates heightened uncertainty, making it a potentially opportune time to buy a strangle if the trader expects volatility to materialise.
For selling a strangle, this scenario may be unfavourable unless the trader anticipates implied volatility to decrease.
Once a strangle is in place, active management can help maximise profits and minimise losses. For example, monitoring the underlying market and exiting positions early can be advantageous in certain scenarios. For long strangles if the price moves significantly before expiration, traders may choose to close the position early to lock in profits. Holding the position too long could lead to time decay eroding the value of the options, especially if the price movement stalls.
For short strangles, if the underlying price remains stable and time decay has worked in the seller’s favour, closing the position early can help secure profits and reduce the risk of sudden adverse movements.
Traders may need to adjust their positions to respond to changing market conditions or to optimise performance. For example, rolling involves shifting the strangle to a new expiration date or different strike prices. This adjustment may be used to extend the strategy’s timeframe or reposition it closer to anticipated price movements.
Adding options or other positions to hedge the strangle can help limit potential losses. For instance, traders selling a strangle may hedge their exposure by purchasing further out-of-the-money options to cap losses.
Continuous monitoring of the Greeks is essential to manage the strangle strategy effectively.
The strangle option strategy is a highly versatile tool in the futures market, offering traders the flexibility to capitalise on either price volatility or stability. By buying a strangle, traders position themselves to profit from significant price movements in any direction, while selling a strangle allows traders to benefit from stable markets and time decay.
However, success with this strategy requires a solid understanding of market dynamics, careful planning, and disciplined risk management. Key factors include:
Understanding the role of the Greeks is also critical for refining and managing the strangle strategy. Whether assessing delta for directional sensitivity, gamma for changes in delta, vega for volatility, or theta for time decay, these metrics provide actionable insights to optimise the strategy’s performance.
While the strangle strategy offers significant potential, it is not without risks. For long strangles, the primary concern is time decay and insufficient price movement. For short strangles, traders face the possibility of unlimited losses in the event of a sharp market move. As such, disciplined risk management is paramount. Tools such as hedging or combining the strangle with other strategies, like the iron condor, can help reduce exposure to extreme losses.
By tailoring the approach to specific market scenarios and continuously refining it with proper analysis, traders can improve their odds of success and enhance their ability to navigate the complexities of futures options trading.