Quarterly Outlook
Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment and Options Strategist
Summary: With sentiment flipping from concern to optimism within days, it’s easy for investors to feel pulled in different directions. This article outlines a straightforward approach to staying calm when headlines become loud and inconsistent.
Recent weeks have shown how quickly market sentiment can flip. Concerns about stretched AI valuations triggered sudden reversals in some of the market’s most popular names, pushing volatility higher and lifting the VIX, a common index that reflects expected market volatility, into the mid-20s (which is above its historical average). Not long after, a more reassuring tone from Federal Reserve officials revived expectations for a December rate cut, helping equities rebound even though underlying concerns about growth, corporate earnings and geopolitics continue to linger in the background.
If you sometimes feel pulled between optimism and caution within the same week, you are not alone. Information moves faster than ever, and the emotional intensity of headlines can easily overshadow the slower-moving fundamentals that matter for long-term investors. This article is not about predicting the next market move; it is about staying rational when both prices and the news cycle become noisy.When most people think about volatility, they think about price swings. But today there is a second layer: the volatility of headlines, commentary and opinion.
One week brings warnings about recession and overvalued tech; the next brings renewed confidence in earnings, productivity gains and soft-landing narratives. Commentary often follows price rather than the other way around, which makes every move feel like a shift in macro conditions.
This matters because your portfolio reacts to price volatility, but your behaviour often reacts to news volatility. Learning to distinguish between the two helps prevent short-term noise from pushing you into long-term mistakes.
Financial media competes for attention, and dramatic headlines tend to win. Social platforms amplify this effect, often creating the impression that every move is part of a bigger story. Our brains reinforce the sensation: losses feel more painful than gains, and recent events feel more important than long-term context.
A 2–3% decline accompanied by loud commentary can easily feel like the start of something bigger, even when it isn’t. Rallies can create the opposite pressure—fear of missing out.
Understanding these tendencies helps put emotional reactions into perspective.
Clarity about time horizon is the simplest way to cut through noise.
Money needed in the next few years requires caution; money invested for 10–20 years can absorb temporary fluctuations.
A useful filter is to ask:
“Does this development genuinely change my long-term investment case, or is it mostly short-term sentiment?”
More often than not, the answer points toward staying disciplined rather than reacting.
A playbook gives structure when markets feel chaotic.
Most investors benefit from:
Rebalancing reduces the risk of letting strong performers dominate the portfolio, and it enforces a systematic approach rather than an emotional one.
Consider an investor with a target allocation of 60% equities and 40% bonds. During the recent ups and downs in AI-linked markets, equities briefly surged, pushing the allocation close to 66%. At the same time, headlines swung from warnings about expensive valuations to renewed optimism about productivity gains.
Instead of reacting to each shift in tone, the investor followed their playbook. During their scheduled quarterly review, they sold a small portion of equities and topped up their bond holdings to restore balance. The adjustment took only minutes but served two important purposes: it reduced risk that had quietly crept into the portfolio, and it prevented a market narrative, positive or negative, from dictating a long-term decision.
This kind of measured action illustrates how a simple rule can anchor behaviour even when the news cycle feels unpredictable.
You cannot turn down market volatility, but you can turn down news volatility.
Checking your portfolio less often helps reduce emotional swings, especially if your goals are years or decades away. Focusing on data-driven summaries rather than live commentary can also improve decision-making, as can deliberately limiting exposure to dramatic headlines that reflect sentiment more than fundamentals.
Short-term returns are outside your control. Your behaviour is not.
You can decide how consistently you save, how diversified you remain, and whether you stick to your rebalancing plan. Judging yourself by whether you follow your rules—rather than whether the market happened to rise or fall this week—often leads to better long-term outcomes.
Volatility in prices and headlines is here to stay.
What matters most is how you interpret that volatility and how consistently you apply your plan. A clear time horizon, a simple playbook, a disciplined information diet and steady behaviour form the best defence against the emotional swings that accompany noisy markets.
Staying sane is not about predicting every turn, but about making thoughtful adjustments when needed and giving your long-term plan the time it needs to work.
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