Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Saxo Group
When reviewing a company as a potential equity investment, it is useful to understand how its costs behave. Many operating costs can be analysed as fixed, variable, or partly fixed and partly variable, depending on how they respond to output or sales volume.
Let's explore the nuances between fixed and variable operating costs, along with real-world examples. We’ll also explain the value of distinguishing between fixed costs and variable costs from an investment perspective.
Fixed costs are expenses that do not vary directly with output over the relevant period (for example, certain rent or salaried staff costs). They may still change over time (e.g., on renewal or as contracts change). Because they are relatively stable over the relevant period, fixed costs typically form part of a company’s base operating costs.
Fixed costs can significantly influence a company’s profitability because they are due regardless of the company’s business activity, including how many goods or services it sells.
Fixed and variable costs should not be confused with direct and indirect costs. Direct costs can be traced to a specific product, service or project, while indirect costs are overheads that support the business more broadly. Either type can be fixed or variable depending on the business model. For example, factory rent may be a fixed overhead, while electricity may include both fixed standing charges and usage-based variable costs.
A fixed cost usually stays broadly stable over the relevant period, regardless of whether production output rises or falls.
Common examples include:
In financial accounting terms, sunk costs are costs already incurred that cannot be recovered. They can be fixed or variable, and not all fixed costs are sunk. For example, if a company buys production machinery, the purchase is a capital expenditure rather than an operating cost, and the asset may later be sold to recover part of its value. Depreciation related to that machinery may be treated as a fixed cost in analysis, but the original asset is not necessarily a fully sunk cost.
Fuel already consumed is sunk (irrecoverable), but fuel expense is usually a variable operating cost linked to usage. It’s not possible to reclaim the petrol or diesel used to drive from A to B.
Variable costs are expenses that rise or fall with production volume, sales volume or usage. In a simple model, total variable cost can be estimated by multiplying output by the variable cost per unit.
Let’s say Company A manufactures 1,000 vehicles at a cost per unit of $5,000. Its variable cost for total production would be $5m. However, if Company A struggled to source materials or electrical components for new vehicles the following year and only built 400 new vehicles – at a higher cost per unit of $8,000 because of material shortages – its variable cost for total production would be $3.2m.
As you can see, the total variable cost to produce a company’s goods or services will directly influence the bottom line of a business. In fact, changes in variable costs can affect margins and profitability, which may influence investor expectations and share price alongside many other factors.
A variable cost is exactly that – variable. It can rise and fall based on a company’s productivity. Common examples include:
Marginal cost is the additional cost of producing one more unit or serving one more customer. It often includes variable costs such as materials, direct labour or transaction costs, but it is not the same as total variable cost. Marginal cost can also change as capacity constraints, overtime, supplier pricing or efficiency levels change.
Once you are familiar with fixed and variable costs, you can then take into consideration total costs, which are both the fixed and variable costs combined. Total fixed costs will cover all expenses a company is contractually obliged to pay. For argument’s sake, let’s say Company A pays USD 5,000 per month to let its industrial headquarters, as well as USD 2,000 a month to hire its production machinery. It also pays USD 400 a month in insurance. The firm’s total fixed costs would be USD 7,400 a month.
Let’s say Company A also produces 1,000 smartphones a month with variable component costs of USD 20 per unit. It also pays USD 10,000 per month for hourly production labour, linked to output. In this simplified example, total variable costs would be USD 30,000 a month.
Investors may look at total costs to understand how changes in revenue affect margins, profitability and cash generation. Managing costs can support long-term resilience, but profitability also depends on pricing power, demand, debt, investment needs and wider market conditions.
Distinguishing between fixed and variable costs can support two useful analyses: a business’s break-even point and its potential economies of scale.
Once you know a company’s fixed costs, selling price per unit and variable cost per unit, you can estimate the sales volume needed to break even. This is calculated using the break-even analysis formula:
Break-even volume = Fixed costs / (Price per unit – Variable cost per unit)
The formula can provide insight into pricing, cost structure and the number of units a business needs to sell before it becomes profitable. It can also support scenario analysis, such as estimating how higher input costs or lower selling prices could affect margins.
Fixed and variable cost analysis can also help investors assess economies of scale. If fixed costs are spread across a higher number of units, the fixed cost per unit may fall, potentially improving margins if selling prices and variable costs remain favourable.
Ultimately, understanding a company’s fixed and variable costs can help you analyse its cost structure, profitability and resilience, alongside other financial and market factors.
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