Outrageous Predictions
Executive Summary: Outrageous Predictions 2026
Saxo Group
Many traditional index funds rely on market capitalisation, giving greater weight to larger companies. While this approach provides simplicity, it can lead to greater exposure to the largest companies in the index.
Smart beta strategies use alternative rules, such as value, momentum or low-volatility screens, to create different types of factor exposure. However, outcomes remain uncertain, and these strategies can underperform traditional market-cap indices.
Smart beta strategies blend elements of passive and active investing by following rules-based indices that target specific factors. Unlike traditional index funds, which allocate weight based solely on market capitalisation, smart beta employs alternative weighting methods designed to capture specific factors, such as value, momentum, and quality.
Smart beta strategies evolved as an extension of rules-based indexing and factor investing. They use a rules-based framework to select or weight securities according to specific objectives, such as seeking higher returns, managing risk or improving diversification.
Factor strategies can underperform broad indices for extended periods and do not guarantee improved returns or lower risk.
Smart beta is most commonly discussed in equities, but factor-based approaches can also be applied to other asset classes, including fixed income and commodities. For example, smart beta index funds might prioritise low-volatility stocks or companies with strong financial fundamentals, depending on the index methodology.
This approach is sometimes described as sitting between traditional passive indexing and active management because it follows predefined rules rather than discretionary stock selection.
Smart beta strategies operate on a structured, rules-based system that blends factor-driven insights with systematic investment approaches. Here's how they work:
Smart beta starts with identifying specific characteristics, or "factors," that influence risk and return. These factors help select the securities included in the portfolio. Common factors include:
By focusing on these factors, smart beta strategies can create targeted exposures linked to objectives such as growth, risk management or income generation.
After selecting securities based on factors, smart beta determines how much weight each should have in the portfolio. Unlike traditional market-cap-weighted indices, which give more weight to the largest companies, smart beta employs alternative weighting methods:
For instance, a smart beta strategy targeting low-volatility stocks might place greater weight on securities with lower historical price fluctuations, with the aim of reducing volatility relative to the broader index it is based on.
The creation of a smart beta strategy involves three key steps:
Investors begin by clarifying their goals (e.g., boosting returns, reducing risk, or achieving better diversification).
Using transparent rules, a customised index is constructed to focus on the chosen factors and weighting methods.
The portfolio passively follows the index, combining the cost-efficiency of passive investing with the strategic enhancements of factor-driven methodologies.
This structured and transparent process offers investors a systematic way to personalise their portfolios without the over-concentration risks of traditional index funds.
Smart beta investing provides unique benefits that go beyond traditional investing approaches. Here are the main ones:
As mentioned, traditional market-cap-weighted indices often concentrate investments in a few dominant companies. Smart beta strategies counter this by diversifying exposure across multiple factors or weighting methods. For instance, an equal-weighted smart beta portfolio ensures smaller companies aren't overshadowed by larger ones, reducing over-concentration risks.
Smart beta focuses on factors like value, momentum, or quality that have shown periods of outperformance in some studies, but results vary and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. For example, a value-focused smart beta fund might emphasise undervalued stocks, taking advantage of their potential to generate higher returns if prices adjust.
Low-volatility smart beta strategies prioritise stocks with smaller price fluctuations, offering an extra layer of stability. Similarly, quality-focused strategies invest in companies with stronger financial characteristics, although performance during downturns still varies.
While smart beta strategies typically have slightly higher fees than traditional index funds, they remain more affordable than actively managed funds. This gives investors access to rules-based factor strategies that may cost less than active management, although fees vary by provider and product.
Smart beta strategies give investors a way to target specific factor exposures within a portfolio. For example, those prioritising growth might focus on momentum or small-cap factors, while risk-averse investors could choose low-volatility or quality-focused strategies.
Smart beta strategies offer a rules-based approach to investing, but they also come with specific challenges and limitations that investors must consider:
Due to their enhanced methodologies, smart beta ETFs typically involve higher fees than traditional market-cap-weighted index funds. While often less expensive than active management, these additional costs can reduce net returns, especially in lower-return markets.
The success of smart beta depends heavily on the chosen factor's performance during different market cycles. For example, value-focused strategies may underperform during market rallies. Relying on a single factor risks significant underperformance when that factor is out of favour.
Smart beta requires a deeper understanding of the underlying factors and methodologies than traditional investing. This complexity can make selecting and evaluating a strategy harder without careful research.
Smart beta strategies are often built using historical performance data. While historical data can inform index design, market conditions don't always repeat. Overfitting a strategy to past trends can result in weaker performance in live market conditions.
Although smart beta has gained popularity, not all strategies are widely available or accessible. Factors like geography, asset class, and the availability of ETFs may restrict options for some investors, making it harder to align their portfolios with specific goals.
Investing in smart beta strategies can provide targeted factor exposure, but it requires a clear understanding of the process. Here are some steps to get started.
Start by clarifying what you aim to achieve. Are you looking for growth, reduced risk, stable income, or better diversification? For instance:
Knowing your objectives can help you assess whether the strategy aligns with your goals.
Examine available smart beta products, comparing their methodologies and performance. Focus on:
Smart beta strategies often target specific factors, so combining multiple approaches may help reduce reliance on a single factor. For example, pairing value and momentum strategies may diversify factor exposure across different market cycles. Regional diversification can also be considered through funds focused on international markets, such as Europe or Asia.
Smart beta and factor ETFs can target different exposures, such as value, momentum, quality, low volatility, high dividend yield, equal weighting or multi-factor strategies.
Before selecting a fund, review the index methodology, top holdings, geographic exposure, concentration, fees, liquidity and whether the fund is available in your market. Product names, tickers, eligibility and costs can change, so fund details should be checked against the provider’s latest documents before investing.
Smart beta funds can be incorporated alongside traditional index or actively managed investments, depending on objectives and risk tolerance. Investors may review their allocations and rebalance to maintain desired exposures. For instance, if one factor outperforms and becomes overweight, rebalancing may help restore the intended allocation and reduce concentration risk.
Smart beta strategies typically have lower fees than active funds but higher costs than traditional index funds. Compare fees with the fund’s methodology and expected role in the portfolio, and review trading volume, bid-ask spreads and fund size when assessing liquidity.
Smart beta strategies continue to develop as index providers and asset managers test new factor combinations and methodologies. Here are key trends shaping their future:
Some multi-factor smart beta ETFs already combine factors, and AI or machine-learning techniques may be used in certain strategies to adjust exposures or analyse datasets. Machine-learning models may analyse large datasets to identify factor combinations, but effectiveness depends on data quality, model design and market conditions.
For example, some strategies aim to adjust exposures over time; whether and how this works in practice varies by product and is not guaranteed.
As technology advances, some providers may offer more personalised portfolio solutions. As a result, some investors may gain access to more custom factor strategies, although availability, suitability, cost and regulation will vary by market. Digital platforms may make factor-based portfolio tools more accessible to retail investors, but implementation and product availability will vary.
The rise of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing is influencing smart beta strategies. Some smart beta ETFs already incorporate ESG criteria into factor selection, while future product development may continue in this area. For instance, some funds may prioritise companies with stronger ESG scores alongside factors such as quality or low volatility.
Smart alpha builds on the foundation of smart beta by blending factor-based investing with selective active management. While smart beta focuses on systematic, rules-based factor exposure, smart alpha introduces an additional layer of active oversight to capitalise on specific market opportunities.
This approach seeks outperformance while using factor-driven methodologies, but results depend on the manager, process, costs and market conditions. For example, a smart alpha fund might use low-volatility and value factors while allowing a manager to make discretionary adjustments during periods of market disruption. However, whether this improves returns relative to smart beta alone remains uncertain.
Smart beta strategies are also being applied to emerging markets and other asset classes. These developments may give investors access to factor-based exposures in more areas, although diversification benefits and risks vary by product.
Smart beta strategies offer a rules-based approach that sits between traditional market-cap indexing and active management.
By using factors such as value, momentum, and low volatility, investors may target specific exposures within a portfolio, whether the aim is to seek returns, manage risk, or improve diversification. However, it's essential to recognise some challenges, such as factor cyclicality, complexity, and costs.
As smart beta continues to evolve, trends like AI-assisted factor selection, ESG integration, and expansion into new regions and asset classes may shape future products. For investors comparing passive indexing with active management, smart beta is one rules-based approach to consider, provided they understand the methodology, costs and factor risks.