Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @mariannaparraga: (2) Venezuela's oil exports flowing without problems are mostly going to #Asia. Since #sanctions, #India has become th…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @Pieter_Buisman: President #Trump 🇺🇸 @realDonaldTrump expected to make speech on #Venezuela next monday, according to sources familiar w…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @spectatorindex: BREAKING: Trade talks between China and the US will continue in Washington DC next week
- @Dembik_Chris
In other words, the worse is yet to come..especially if policymakers don't step in to stimulate further the economy… https://t.co/camGBmoxcH
- @Dembik_Chris
We have plotted the VIX and the one-year/10-year spread. We can see that the one-year/10-year spread leads VIX by r… https://t.co/W1xLuEuG41
- @Dembik_Chris
As we believe that the curve is still one of the most important signals regarding the risk of recession, we expect… https://t.co/SbH3tcUOjA
- @Dembik_Chris
Historically, the lag between the inversion of the yield curve and the recession is on average 22 months. If histor… https://t.co/CsedILZG7o
- @Dembik_Chris
Looking at the one-year/10-year spread, the curve is not inverted yet. As of today, it stands at +6 basis points bu… https://t.co/wp9i6CSxGO
- @Dembik_Chris
To predict the likelihood of a recession, investors usually pay a lot of attention to the two-year/10-year spread,… https://t.co/3ur6i40Z3N
- @Dembik_Chris
Over the past 2 months, the risk of #recession has significantly increased due to market panic linked to the Fed's… https://t.co/VwlO2ogeCF
- @Dembik_Chris
Another addition to @SaxoStrats #Recession Watch: A look at the US yield curve. There is a debate to dismiss the cu… https://t.co/JnPMyrwLrO
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @VMRConstancio: Elections to happen in Spain and polls ( in El País) showing political fragmentation and explosive sudden growth of extr…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @Danske_Research: Bigget drop in US retail sales (control group) since January 2000. Crisis ahead or just a one off 🤔🤔🤔 No good "technic…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @BenBartenstein: SCOOP: #Venezuela’s opposition has discussed hiring well-known debt restructuring attorney Lee Buchheit for an advising…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @EdConwaySky: Striking chart from BoE’s Jan Vlieghe shows just how much UK business investment has diverged from the rest of the world s…
- @Dembik_Chris
#Recession Watch: A closer look at leading economic indicators https://t.co/iqCJSdBTh4 https://t.co/4HAOCmwc8h
- @Dembik_Chris
Back to work - this is certainly one of the most important charts ever for investors. Some people on Twitter deny… https://t.co/ZwBnPRnwdI
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @vlad_hernandez_: Extracto de entrevista a Maduro por @orlaguerin via @bbcmundo: O: ¿Cuánto cuesta un kilo de queso en Venezuela? M: Ti…
- @Dembik_Chris
Comment sauver le #Venezuela ? https://t.co/uOiIklB77p Quelques pistes pour la reconstruction économique. Top prior… https://t.co/QppUThc4jS
- @Dembik_Chris
Extrêmement important (et correspond à ce à quoi je m’attendais). La realpolitik l’emporte. La Chine et la Russie s… https://t.co/HmQFCkWMhA
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @ReutersVzla: Chinese diplomats have held debt negotiations in #Washington in recent weeks with representatives of @jguaido - @WSJ
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @BenBartenstein: With U.S. sanctions preventing Citgo from buying Venezuelan crude, the Houston-based subsidiary to #Venezuela oil giant…
- @Dembik_Chris
@Denis_Ferrand @Rexecode @CKalasopatan @Cdanslair Retour (à Hanoï pour quelques heures) ;)
- @Dembik_Chris
Good bye #Vietnam. Was really great. Genuinely nice people. Lovely nature. Back to work very soon. Next week, busin… https://t.co/ZEh5MbiLEj
- @Dembik_Chris
Intéressante itw d’@marchal_o. Mais ne pas tarder car les signes de ralentissement économique s’accumulent et, à ce… https://t.co/igbgTVNcAy
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @zerohedge: And now the NY Fed is warning the dollar will lose its reserve status: “Nevertheless, recent trends bear watching as histor…
- @Dembik_Chris
Bref, il faudra sortir de la com pure, comprendre l’essor du populisme (qui est désormais un vote d’adhésion dans d… https://t.co/VjpHWwApmz
- @Dembik_Chris
Malgré des mesures parfois peu orthodoxes (voir sur les fonds de pension). Pour combattre le populisme, il faut s’i… https://t.co/UZSzDlZbX9
- @Dembik_Chris
2ème enseignement - aise de qualifier le PiS de parti « populiste » mais il faut surtout s’interroger sur le mainti… https://t.co/yb9D09JCd6
- @Dembik_Chris
1er enseignement : pas de partenaire européen crédible pour LREM en Pologne et même globalement dans la zone CEE. L… https://t.co/sv3CTupAmj
- @Dembik_Chris
On peut saluer l’honorable performance de Biedron mais ce qui est frappant c’est le soutien élevé pour le parti Dro… https://t.co/lRtloRCAcU
- @Dembik_Chris
Nouveau sondage d’IBRIS pour @rzeczpospolita indique un socle de soutien très élevé pour le PiS (37,1%), très loin… https://t.co/0w0t4YZ60V
- @Dembik_Chris
Waiting for my flight to Hanoi #Vietnam. Gr8 time to read : more immigrants = higher productivity/growth (Evidence… https://t.co/zLUJ8mXIRW
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @teasri: There are 3 camps on China: 1. China is stimulating, things will pick up 2. Dont look for big China stimulus, but things will n…
- @Dembik_Chris
@martin_anota Bonne idée. Un exemplaire de mon prochain ouvrage qui paraîtra en octobre prochain ;)
- @Dembik_Chris
Beautiful and peaceful #PhuQuoc #Vietnam. But so much to do to preserve and protect the environment. It is a pity t… https://t.co/I8TVx27msy
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @STHGibbs: In the dark, Maduro asked his Electricity Minister Luis Motta Dominguez what was going on. “Let me check,” he responded. “Y…
- @Dembik_Chris
« By far the most important environmental factor affecting [electricity transmission, storage, and distribution] in… https://t.co/zN9BxQyRnO
- @Dembik_Chris
Climate change is forcing utilities to change how they do business https://t.co/BLMTVvmXAL
- @Dembik_Chris
Pour voyager souvent en Europe de l’Est et dans la zone MENA, ou la liberté de la presse est vaguement respectée, c… https://t.co/INhcG4FVx8
- @Dembik_Chris
@lafortezzanico1 Par rapport aux facteurs que j ai mis en avant au préalable. Ce qui me chagrine ce sont ces grille… https://t.co/LRXIBIkiFP
- @Dembik_Chris
Tout ça pour dire que le pétrole est certainement le facteur qui a le moins compté dans les événements récents. Gri… https://t.co/hDOaJxciCe
- @Dembik_Chris
Pétrole lourd, forte concentration en sulfure qui nécessite un traitement avt commercialisation...bref un coût élev… https://t.co/Km2qympuA0
- @Dembik_Chris
Mais bon...on ne devient pas spécialiste du Venezuela en lisant deux ou trois dépêches. Sinon on peut aussi lire le… https://t.co/LID04aCG4p
- @Dembik_Chris
Le mouvement s’explique d’abord par la crise humanitaire qui a provoqué des tensions sociales dans les pays d’Am. l… https://t.co/ZB0135oxSM
- @Dembik_Chris
#Europeennes2019 Frappant que la Chine soit absente des débats. A moyen/LT certainement plus important que le popul… https://t.co/si77AUHtD3
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @T_Mason_H: Crude oil from Venezuela is nasty stuff, high in sulfur and very heavy. The most common stream called 'Merey' has an API of…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @AFPphoto: #Venezuela #Colombia Venezuelan military officers blocked a bridge on the border with Colombia ahead of an anticipated human…
- @Dembik_Chris
It’s a tough climate for traders right now with a gloomy global economy, weak returns across the board and whispers… https://t.co/Lyj0pQVt2c
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @EPhilippePM: #Alstom-Siemens : La décision de la Commission est une mauvaise décision, prise sur de mauvais fondements. https://t.co/br…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @steph_sejourne: L'entreprise chinoise CRRC, déjà présente dans l'UE, pèse davantage que #AlstomSiemens et Bombardier réunis. Il faut…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @BrunoLeMaire: Le rejet de la fusion Alstom-Siemens va servir les intérêts économiques et industriels de la #Chine. Cette décision empêc…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @notesfrompoland: The Polish government is 'reviewing' the Sunday trading ban it introduced last year. Polls suggest growing oppositio…
- @Dembik_Chris
Totalement en accord avec la grille de lecture de Bercy sur le dossier #Alstom-Siemens que j’avais suivi de près en… https://t.co/413NCQlnsr
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @Sebaboyd: Venezuela prints money at the fastest pace ever in a sign of panic https://t.co/FWiyoKnzUC via @markets
- @Dembik_Chris
@RaphaelVignes It will certainly happen but quite unclear whether it will be as efficient as in the recent past (gr… https://t.co/IrPQa0HYLe
- @Dembik_Chris
The next step for central bankers will be to assess possible policy responses in a world of constraints to stimulat… https://t.co/GOd7seHuTA
- @Dembik_Chris
A rebound in activity is very unlikely, which means, in our view, that CBs will stay in “wait-and-see” position for… https://t.co/vJbembUt9m
- @Dembik_Chris
Looking at the NY Fed’s recession-risk model, it seems that the risk of #recession has substantially increased in t… https://t.co/DDWFdw3krE
- @Dembik_Chris
Though less worrying, the outlook is also deteriorating in the USA, before even we can assess the impact on the eco… https://t.co/HB7Cn3aqlW
- @Dembik_Chris
@MuscleFoodUK any plan to expand to the French market ? Would greatly appreciate your answer.
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @saxomarkets: Turbulent times can make trading difficult. Saxo Group’s Christopher Dembik looks at assets that have historically traded…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @JulioVillarroel: Merci monsieur le président @EmmanuelMacron https://t.co/tcQRfV0yY8
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @zerohedge: "Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, except to stress that the path of policy will depend entirely…
- @Dembik_Chris
CBs are way too optimistic about growth forecasts. Look at the ECB. Agree...very tricky exercices but leading indic… https://t.co/DOdBxKeTQc
- @Dembik_Chris
Our more negative view concerns Germany = 1/3 of Eur industrial activity. Q1 2019 should be gloomy due to low senti… https://t.co/jENPVcJAg2
- @Dembik_Chris
The euro area OECD leading indicator very worrying. The year-on-year rate experienced quite a swing over 11 months:… https://t.co/fQqMmsGNEi
- @Dembik_Chris
Being in Asia does not make me more optimistic about global growth. Still believe that global recessionary pressure… https://t.co/s0EQVWhY2t
- @Dembik_Chris
A look at the Venezuelan bond market by @Altheaspinozzi #SaxoStrats. Totally agree with her. Too early to be optimi… https://t.co/GWIoNCJLfD
- @Dembik_Chris
Dernier point @pdvsa : audit nécessaire (les bilans comptables sont biaisés), replacement du top management (bcp de… https://t.co/QRtMKwnEmX
- @Dembik_Chris
Sur la corruption au #Venezuela : il faudra faire un audit du fonds Chine-Venezuela mis en œuvre en 2009 et qui aur… https://t.co/VAu2bUpEN2
- @Dembik_Chris
Sur la polique sociale : peu de débats. Maintien des missions bolivariennes mais il faudra s’assurer qu’elles ne se… https://t.co/mb3T0sM8RB
- @Dembik_Chris
Sur la réforme monétaire : indépendance réelle de la banque centrale mais surtout mise en place d’un panier mixte (… https://t.co/fswJOVn7OS
- @Dembik_Chris
Autre point important pour le marché pétrolier : peu de chances qu’une éventuelle reprise de la production au… https://t.co/yhdoM37a4z
- @Dembik_Chris
La hausse du Bolivar sur le marché officiel s’explique par le besoin du gouvernement d’avoir accès à des liquidités… https://t.co/OcRf33J24p
- @Dembik_Chris
Après l’aide humanitaire, le #Venezuela devra restructurer son secteur bancaire -une relance avec des banques en ma… https://t.co/sCFVRbb7b3
- @Dembik_Chris
Tactique très intelligente de Washington et surtout de #Bolton au #Venezuela. Il ne s’agit pas de faire chuter le g… https://t.co/0KauCooCe0
- @Dembik_Chris
#Venezuela L’ambassadeur en Irak apporte son soutien au président par intérim @jguaido. Pas proche du premier cercl… https://t.co/MYyo1nSiKS
- @Dembik_Chris
Off until Feb 12th...In Southern Asia...but from time to time, I may tweet a bit about macro updates & Venezuela.
- @Dembik_Chris
Small open economies lead developed countries (as often mentioned by my friends from Nordea). Totally agree. Lookin… https://t.co/RwzZc1LMO6
- @Dembik_Chris
According to Capital Economics, factors contributing to 45 recessions in G7 economies since 1960: tight monetary po… https://t.co/dAYsLCjhR6
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @Fxol: Dans @LesEchos de demain, ma chronique sur le lien entre technologie et création monétaire. C’est l’heure de changer la #monnaie…
- @Dembik_Chris
RT @Dembik_Chris: Macro Update: The US & China could wait for a last-minute trade agreement to get the best deal they can. Small open econ…
About Christopher Dembik
Christopher Dembik joined Saxo Bank in 2014 and has been the Head of Macro Analysis since 2016. He focuses on delivering analysis of monetary policies and macroeconomic developments globally as defined by fundamentals, market sentiment and technical analysis.
Dembik won in 2015 the Thomson Reuters StarMine Awards for the best macroeconomic forecasts for France. He is also the author of “The Greatest Contemporary Economic Debates” published in 2016 and has a new book coming out in 2017 on virtual currencies. Dembik writes Saxo Bank’s Monthly Macro Outlook, which has a strong focus on monetary policies. He regularly publishes outlooks on the French and Polish economies. He also often quoted in the news media such as Bloomberg, TF1 and Newsweek.
Christopher Dembik joined Saxo Bank in 2014 and has been the Head of Macro Analysis since 2016. He focuses on delivering analysis of monetary policies and macroeconomic developments globally as defined by fundamentals, market sentiment and technical analysis.
Dembik won in 2015 the Thomson Reuters StarMine Awards for the best macroeconomic forecasts for France. He is also the author of “The Greatest Contemporary Economic Debates” published in 2016 and has a new book coming out in 2017 on virtual currencies. Dembik writes Saxo Bank’s Monthly Macro Outlook, which has a strong focus on monetary policies. He regularly publishes outlooks on the French and Polish economies. He also often quoted in the news media such as Bloomberg, TF1 and Newsweek.
Monthly Macro Outlook: Global recessionary pressures are increasing
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
France’s business climate is recovering from Yellow Vest turmoil
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macro Analysis
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