Chief Investment Officer
Summary: How should you navigate the volatile financial markets? - see latest research from SaxoStrats below
How to spot low in market (if at all possible) - Peter Garnry
Two monitors to observe for change in markets:
Turning point indicators #1 – VIX futures term structure
Turning point indicators #2 – Financials to utilities ratio
Helicopter Money - Christopher Dembik
From Macro Perspective we have reached end-of-the-road for monetary policy meaning government and more precise helicopter money is up - Please educate yourself via Christopher Dembik piece below and prepare for inflation risk in your portfolio and mortgages! (broken down supply chains, infinite free money spending and assets and energy at floor levels è Big reflation / inflation coming - Yes hedge your mortgage next three months for next 30 years)
Killer Dollar - John Hardy
The killer dollar is on the loose
Commodities - Ole S Hansen
Gold remains troubled but headlines unlikely to persist
COT: Commodity exposure cut as deleveraging reigns
Finally my piece:
Pro’s and Con’s is 10.000 feet perspective on the markets and how to navigate them:
Macro Digest: Pros & Cons of risk and markets. Do you feel lucky?
Follow SaxoStrats on the daily Market Call - and see below for newest research
2020-03-17 - Market Quick Take - March 17, 2020
2020-03-17 - Macro Digest: Pros & Cons of risk and markets. Do you feel lucky?
2020-03-16 - Market Quick Take - March 16, 2020
2020-03-13 - Steen's Chronicle - The 10 year bull market just died of coronavirus
2020-03-13 - Market Quick Take - March 13, 2020
2020-03-17 - FX Update: The killer dollar is on the loose.
2020-03-16 - FX Update: Fed bazooka fails to impress. G7 meeting next test.
2020-03-13 - FX Update: Markets picking up the pieces after the deluge
2020-03-12 - FX Update: ECB needs to shock and awe today, then FOMC next week
2020-03-11 - FX Update: Policymakers readying their bazookas
2020-03-13 - US stocks in focus for mean-reversion
2020-03-13 - NAV discounts in credit ETFs underscores the 'dash for cash' environment
2020-03-12 - Today Europe committed an historic policy mistake
2020-03-11 - Will European policy makers pull out the bazooka tomorrow?
2020-03-10 - Lessons from 2008 on how to navigate equities in high volatility
2020-03-15 - COT: Commodity exposure cut as deleveraging reigns
2020-03-15 - COT: Dollar long cut by most in eight years
2020-03-13 - A lesson from 2008 - watch gold as a leading indicator
2020-03-10 - Crude oil collapse highlights the global virus disruption
2020-03-17 - It's time for free money
2020-03-16 - France is the next front in the coronavirus battle
2020-03-16 - Chart of the Week: Container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles
2020-03-12 - ECB: Time for SME bailout
2020-03-11 - Credit Impulse Update: A key engine of US growth is stalling
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
