Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: A major trade indicator is sending a warning signal about the U.S. economy.
Over the weekend, the Port of Los Angeles has published its latest data about monthly container statistics. Without much surprise, it is very ugly. The drop in container volumes at Port of Los Angeles is reaching minus 22.87% in February, which is the worst monthly performance since February 2009. It is of strong significance for the U.S. economy as the Port of Los Angeles is the number one port in the U.S. in terms of container volume and value. We have a clear confirmation that supply chains disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak are becoming more visible and, based on preliminary data, are likely to get worse. Statistics for the month of March, that should be released around April 15, should confirm the Port of Los Angeles is going through a terrible time this month. Adding to that severe disruptions on the consumer side that are likely to get stronger, especially regarding discretionary consumption which represents nearly 40% of GDP, and you get a perfect storm for a recession. The only pending question at this stage is the size of the drop.
The market is trying to get back to the pre-Covid and pre-war times, but that model is broken. A new dawn is here and the financial world needs to adapt.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
A political switch in China towards less tough control of its people and companies may kick things back into gear.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
While the economic situation in Europe may not be as bad as feared, there's still a plethora of things to fix.
Chris Dembik,
Head of Macroeconomic Research
As the world turns increasingly bipolar, equity markets face harsh times as they transition into the new reality.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
New alliances and collaborations outside of China may lead to prosperous times in Asia.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
For years, it was thought that the balanced portfolio was a thing of the past. But recent developments may have changed that.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach
Following a dramatic and volatile 2022 with good returns, a lot of this year's commodity performance may be driven by Chinese politics.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
2023 could be a tough year for currencies but EUR and JPY may have some upside.
John J. Hardy,
Head of FX Strategy
The commodity-heavy Australian market may have a good start to 2023, as the Chinese focus on growth signals demand for Aussie resources.
Jessica Amir,
Market Strategist
From a near-perfect environment for speculative assets before 2022 to the opposite, crypto faces fundamental challenges.
Mads Eberhardt,
Cryptocurrency Analyst
