Chart of the Week: Container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles
Head of Macro Analysis
Summary: A major trade indicator is sending a warning signal about the U.S. economy.
Over the weekend, the Port of Los Angeles has published its latest data about monthly container statistics. Without much surprise, it is very ugly. The drop in container volumes at Port of Los Angeles is reaching minus 22.87% in February, which is the worst monthly performance since February 2009. It is of strong significance for the U.S. economy as the Port of Los Angeles is the number one port in the U.S. in terms of container volume and value. We have a clear confirmation that supply chains disruptions due to the COVID-19 outbreak are becoming more visible and, based on preliminary data, are likely to get worse. Statistics for the month of March, that should be released around April 15, should confirm the Port of Los Angeles is going through a terrible time this month. Adding to that severe disruptions on the consumer side that are likely to get stronger, especially regarding discretionary consumption which represents nearly 40% of GDP, and you get a perfect storm for a recession. The only pending question at this stage is the size of the drop.
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Productivity and innovation have never been more importantAs the world economy hits physical limits and central banks tighten their belts, could equities be facing a 10-15% downside?
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)