21goldM

COT report: Speculative flows in FX and commodities post-Fed decision

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 23 September 2025.
  • Speculators responded to post-FOMC dollar strength by adding longs in CHF, GBP, and JPY, lifting the overall gross dollar short by 10%.
  • Precious metals and livestock were the only sectors trading higher during the FOMC rate-cutting week, while softs and energy led broad declines.
  • Precious metals extended their strong run, with light profit-taking in gold offset by continued modest net buying in silver and platinum.
  • In grains, speculators held the largest seasonal short on record, marking the first time in 20 months that net short positions were held across all six grains and oilseeds contracts.


Forex

The latest reporting week captured the market’s response to the resumption of US rate cuts, a well-anticipated move that left the dollar index up around 0.6% as of last Tuesday. All eight IMM futures tracked in this update traded lower, led by weakness in NZD, AUD and GBP. However, speculators used the pullback to add exposure, lifting the overall gross dollar short by 10% to USD 8.7 billion. This was driven by increased length in CHF, GBP and especially JPY, only partly offset by net selling in EUR, CAD and the antipodeans.

The standout was MXN, where the net long climbed to a 15-month high at 83.4k contracts, far above the five-year average of around 27k contracts and the only position stretched relative to long-term norms.

 

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Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar

Commodities

Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell 1.5% during the reporting week to just before broad strength, as we highlighted in our latest “Commodity Weekly,” drove prices to a strong end-of-week finish and towards the highest monthly close since May 2022.

Precious metals and livestock were the only two sectors trading higher during the FOMC rate-cutting week to 23 September, while the rest suffered notable setbacks. Softs led the decline, slumping 8.1% on the back of a 14.5% drop in Arabica coffee. Grains also faced broad selling pressure, as harvest flows and weak Chinese demand pushed managed money accounts into net short positions across all six major CME-traded contracts for the first time in 20 months, while the combined net short was the highest ever recorded for this period.

In energy, sellers returned to Brent and WTI, though the 19.3k contract reduction—driven primarily by long liquidation rather than new short positions—was modest compared with the 53.4k contracts added the previous week.

Precious metals extended their strong run, prompting light profit-taking in gold alongside continued modest net buying in silver and platinum. In copper, managed money lifted the net long to a 15-month high of 44.5k contracts, just ahead of Freeport’s force majeure announcement following the accident at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.

 

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Managed money commodities long, short and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 23 September 2025
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Energy
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Precious and industrial metals
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Grains and oilseed futures
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Softs

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Related articles/content             
26 Sept 2025: Commodities weekly Riding a wave of broad-based strength
25 Sept 2025: Copper Grasberg disruption adds fuel to robust demand outlook
24 Sept 2025: Precious metals surge to fresh highs as Fed cuts add fuel
22 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 16 September 2025
17 Sept 2025: In demand gold and silver brace for Fed decision
15 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 9 September 2025
11 Sept 2025: High tech needs low tech AIs power appetite and coppers constraint
8 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 2 September 2025
5 Sept 2025: Commodities weekly Metals lead crude heavy ags under pressure
4 Sept 2025: OPEC supply expansion and Russias export woes keep crude rangebound
3 Sept 2025: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
1 Sept 2025: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
1 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 26 August 2025
28 Aug 2025: Steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold
27 Aug 2025: US lumber futures erase tariff gains hint at housing slowdown
26 Aug 2025: Trouble at the Fed supports gold and silver
25 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 19 August 2025
22 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly ags and energy steady the ship metals lag as Powell looms
21 Aug 2025: Crude oil supported by US inventory decline robust demand and weak positioning
19 Aug 2025: Gold and silver still boxed in waiting for the next catalyst
18 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 12 August
15 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly metals and softs rise in August as energy and grains slide
14 Aug 2025: Weekly gains across soft commodities on weather and policy-induced risks
13 Aug 2025: WASDE projects record corn crop tighter soybeans wheat under pressure
11 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 11 Aug 2025
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
6 Aug 2025: Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions
5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run

Educational resources:
A short guide to trading copper
Gold, silver, and platinum: Are precious metals a safe haven investment?

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here


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