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COT Report: Speculators slash commodity longs to 11-month low, gold remains dominant

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Key points:

  • Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 5 August 2025.
  • Dollar short covering extended to a sixth week despite emerging signs the recent recovery had run out of steam.
  • Speculators slash commodity longs to 11-month low amid copper tariff flip-flop, OPEC+ production surge, and crop-friendly weather weighing on grains. 
  • Gold remains by far the dominant position, supported by weak US jobs report and potential Fed pivot towards rate cuts

Forex

Despite emerging signs of the recent dollar recovery had run out of steam, speculators extended their recent buying spree to six leading to a considerable amount of further dollar short-covering. Overall, the gross USD short versus eight IMM forex futures slumped by 38% to USD 7.1 billion, the lowest belief in a weaker dollar since April, with selling seen across all eight except the Mexican peso, and led by JPY, EUR and not least GBP after the net short jumped to near a three-year high. Another extreme emerged in AUD where the net short reached an 18-month high.

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Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar
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Dollar net position versus eight IMM futures contracts

Commodities

In the week to August 5, several major developments drove positioning changes across key commodities. Trump’s abrupt reversal on copper tariffs triggered a 22% slump in New York prices, prompting funds to halve their HG copper net long. In energy, OPEC+’s continued production increases—potentially into a softening demand period—pressured crude oil, while fading tightness in the diesel market led to long liquidation in London and New York from recent three-year highs.

Grains remained under pressure as favourable U.S., European, and Black Sea weather maintained strong crop prospects, reinforcing elevated speculative short positions across wheat, corn, and soybeans. Notably, soybean futures jumped 2.5% in early Monday trade after Trump urged China to quadruple U.S. soy purchases as part of efforts to cut its trade deficit with China. As of late July, US government data showed China, the world’s top buyer of soybeans, had yet to book any cargoes for the upcoming season that starts in September as tensions between the two sides linger.

Overall, managed money accounts engaged in broad-based selling, with most of the 27 major commodity futures tracked seeing net reductions. The combined net long fell to an 11-month low of 540,000 contracts, valued at USD 107 billion. More than half of this nominal value came from gold’s 161,811-contract net long—which, in contrast to the broader trend, rose 13% last week as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report and potential dovish shift from the FOMC boosted September rate-cut expectations.

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Managed money commodities long, short and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 5 August 2025.
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Energy
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Precious and industrial metals
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Grains and oilseed futures
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Softs & Livestock

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Related articles/content             
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
6 Aug 2025: Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions
5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike
28 May 2025: Breakout or breakdown Gold silver and platinum face pivotal resistance zones
26 May 2025: COT Report: Hedge funds return to gold; elevated grains short
23 May 2025: Commodities weekly Diverging supply trends boost platinum weigh on crude
21 May 2025: Israel attack risks add modest risk premium to crude prices
20 May 2025: As gold pauses is platinum ready to shine for investors
19 May 2025: COT Report: Speculators show measured reaction to trade truce
16 May 2025: Commodities Weekly - Gold retreats Procyclicals rise amid trade truce optimism
14 May 2025: Crude stays range-bound despite latest tariff-truce bounce

13 May 2025: Gold holds steady as tariff truce sparks silver rebound
12 May 2025: COT Report: Broad risk reduction seen ahead of easing trade tensions
9 May 2025: Commodities weekly Sentiment improves as trade tensions cool before talks
8 May 2025: Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply
7 May 2025: Agriculture markets diverge as trade war weather and speculators reshape landscape
6 May 2025: Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks

6 May 2025: Gold rises as Chinese demand rebounds post-holiday
5 May 2025: 
COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike
1 May 2025: 
Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses

Podcasts that include commodities focus:


2 July 2025: Three big questions in the week ahead
24 June 2025: Crude oil and USDJPY whiplash. Tesla fans ignore shaky debut
23 June 2025: Market quickly recovering from Operation Midnight Hammer
20 June 2025: Yep: NOK, wheat and Tesla in the same podcast.
13 June 2025: Geopolitics derails risk sentiment, but for how long?
6 June 2025: Silver rips as Musk-Trump bromance trips
28 May 2025: Nvidia to determine whether US stocks can achieve new highs
12 May 2025: As good as it gets on the trade news front
6 May 2025: 
Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind

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