21minersM

Commodities weekly: Metals lead, crude heavy, ags under pressure

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

  • BCOM index heads for third straight weekly gain, led by industrial and not least precious metals: gold and silver extend technical breakouts
  • OPEC+ chatter about a potential increase weigh on crude; strength in diesel and natural gas leaves sector near unchanged on the week
  • US macro data softness adding weight to rate cuts, concerns over Fed independence, Beijing meetings highlighting a fragmented world all keeping safe haven demand alive
  • Ample supply remains a key theme across the agriculture and soft sectors, capping any rallies

Ahead of today’s US jobs report, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is on track for a third straight weekly gain, driven by strength in industrial and especially precious metals. Gold and silver have both risen more than 4% after breaking higher on technical momentum, supported by rate-cut expectations and concerns over Fed independence. The energy sector is mixed but overall firmer, with gains in natural gas and diesel offsetting a weekly decline in crude ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting amid speculation the group, counter to expectations, may announce another production hike for October. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector trades lower on broad losses across grains and softs with an outlook for ample supply curbing upside recovery attempts.

5olh_wcu1
One week performance

The first week of September traditionally marks the return of liquidity as market activity picks up following the US Labor Day holiday and the August slowdown. This year has started on a mixed note: key equity benchmarks are at record highs, long-end bond yields are rising globally, while US data points to emerging softness that could be reinforced by today’s jobs report. In China, recent releases suggest a tentative recovery, but the picture remains uneven, with equity markets lifted mainly by policy support and optimism around AI and technology.

US indicators have highlighted weakness, fuelling a build-up in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The US yield curve shows signs of a bull steepening, with front-end yields easing on the prospect of earlier and deeper cuts, while long-dated yields remain sticky on inflation and fiscal concerns. That mix is supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold but raises questions for risk appetite more broadly.

Today’s US jobs report, especially the nonfarm payrolls print is pivotal. A softer print would reinforce the slowing growth and policy easing narrative, while a stronger outcome could undercut the recent metals rally. Either way, the labour data has the potential to set the near-term tone not just for rates but for the broader commodity complex.

Geopolitics: signals from Beijing

In Beijing, President Xi Jinping gathered world leaders who share frustration with US policy, including Putin and India's Narendra Modi. The optics alone serve as a reminder of a more fragmented global order, with implications for trade flows, reserve diversification, and strategic alignment.

Geopolitical risks are increasingly shaping commodity markets, with resources used as leverage in strategic disputes. This raises the prospect of supply disruptions and sudden price spikes. The impact typically emerges through two channels: stronger safe-haven demand, particularly for gold, and shifts in supply chains as sanctions and tariffs are imposed or circumvented. The ability of major producers and consumers to work around US-led restrictions could alter flows in oil, gas, and industrial metals in the months ahead.

Fed independence risks a major focus

The bullish narrative in investment metals, which this past week drove gold to a fresh record and lifted silver above USD 40 for the first time in 14 years, is not solely about rate cuts and geopolitics. Governance concerns have added a premium, with President Trump’s repeated attacks on Fed Chair Powell and his recent attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook raising fresh doubts about Fed independence. That independence is viewed as crucial for safeguarding economic stability, controlling inflation, and maintaining global market confidence—a concern that gold and other investment metals naturally absorb as a hedge against political interference.

Our latest views and updates on gold, silver and crude oil:

Gold breaks to record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
OPEC+ supply expansion and Russia’s export woes keep crude rangebound

Other commodities in brief


US natural gas futures
rose for a second week, recovering from an 11-month low to trade above USD 3 per therm. Support came from rising LNG exports and signs of moderating production, with the weekly rig count showing no increase over the past month. These developments have helped offset healthy storage levels, currently 5.6% above the five-year average.

Copper in London briefly traded back above USD 10,000 to a five-month high before retreating amid limited follow-through from traders and speculators. The broader outlook remains supportive, with focus on China and potential government initiatives to stimulate growth. A short-term concern is the continued build-up of copper in US COMEX warehouses, which now hold a record 53.4% of all monitored exchange stocks. Given that the US accounts for only around 6% of global demand, the tariff-driven flows risk reversing, potentially adding supply back into the global market where London sets the benchmark price.

Wheat futures in Chicago and Paris, tracking new-crop prices for December delivery, remain stuck near multi-year lows amid ample global supply and stiff export competition. Pressure comes from large harvests in Russia, Ukraine, and parts of Europe, while Australia’s crop is also expected to be well above average

Chicago soybeans slipped back after an August rebound that had been driven by expectations of a smaller US crop and hopes of progress in US-China trade talks. This week’s gathering of non-Western leaders in Beijing instead underscored the rivalry between the two nations, with tariffs continuing to curb Chinese demand for new-crop US shipments and weighing on prices.

The week ahead in commodities

Sunday
• OPEC+ (eight nations) meet online to assess oil markets
Tuesday
• Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore runs through to Friday
• EIA publishes monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
Wednesday
• EIA weekly crude and fuel stock report
Thursday
• IEA monthly Oil Market Report (OMR)
• OPEC monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)
• EIA weekly natural gas storage change
Friday
• USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
• CFTC weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report on speculative positions

5olh_wcu2
US Natural Gas Futures, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
5olh_wcu3
CBOT Wheat, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
5olh_wcu4
Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF, tracking the BCOM Total Return Index - Source: Saxo
Related articles/content             
5 Sept 2025: OPEC supply expansion and Russias export woes keep crude rangebound
3 Sept 2025: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
1 Sept 2025: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
1 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 26 August 2025
28 Aug 2025: Steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold
27 Aug 2025: US lumber futures erase tariff gains hint at housing slowdown
26 Aug 2025: Trouble at the Fed supports gold and silver
25 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 19 August 2025
22 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly ags and energy steady the ship metals lag as Powell looms
21 Aug 2025: Crude oil supported by US inventory decline robust demand and weak positioning
19 Aug 2025: Gold and silver still boxed in waiting for the next catalyst
18 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 12 August
15 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly metals and softs rise in August as energy and grains slide
14 Aug 2025: Weekly gains across soft commodities on weather and policy-induced risks
13 Aug 2025: WASDE projects record corn crop tighter soybeans wheat under pressure
11 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 11 Aug 2025
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
6 Aug 2025: Crude oil caught between supply surge and geopolitical tensions
5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike

Daily podcasts hosted by John J Hardy can be found here


More from the author             
This content is marketing material and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.
The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options..

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

The information on or via the website is provided to you by Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. (“Saxo Bank”) for educational and information purposes only. The information should not be construed as an offer or recommendation to enter into any transaction or any particular service, nor should the contents be construed as advice of any other kind, for example of a tax or legal nature.

All trading carries risk. Loses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Saxo Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information provided and shall not be responsible for any errors or omissions or for any losses or damages resulting from the use of such information.

The content of this website represents marketing material and is not the result of financial analysis or research. It has therefore not been prepared in accordance with directives designed to promote the independence of financial/investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research.

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.