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Commodities weekly: Metals lead, crude heavy, ags under pressure

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

  • BCOM index heads for third straight weekly gain, led by industrial and not least precious metals: gold and silver extend technical breakouts
  • OPEC+ chatter about a potential increase weigh on crude; strength in diesel and natural gas leaves sector near unchanged on the week
  • US macro data softness adding weight to rate cuts, concerns over Fed independence, Beijing meetings highlighting a fragmented world all keeping safe haven demand alive
  • Ample supply remains a key theme across the agriculture and soft sectors, capping any rallies

Ahead of today’s US jobs report, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is on track for a third straight weekly gain, driven by strength in industrial and especially precious metals. Gold and silver have both risen more than 4% after breaking higher on technical momentum, supported by rate-cut expectations and concerns over Fed independence. The energy sector is mixed but overall firmer, with gains in natural gas and diesel offsetting a weekly decline in crude ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting amid speculation the group, counter to expectations, may announce another production hike for October. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector trades lower on broad losses across grains and softs with an outlook for ample supply curbing upside recovery attempts.

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One week performance

The first week of September traditionally marks the return of liquidity as market activity picks up following the US Labor Day holiday and the August slowdown. This year has started on a mixed note: key equity benchmarks are at record highs, long-end bond yields are rising globally, while US data points to emerging softness that could be reinforced by today’s jobs report. In China, recent releases suggest a tentative recovery, but the picture remains uneven, with equity markets lifted mainly by policy support and optimism around AI and technology.

US indicators have highlighted weakness, fuelling a build-up in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The US yield curve shows signs of a bull steepening, with front-end yields easing on the prospect of earlier and deeper cuts, while long-dated yields remain sticky on inflation and fiscal concerns. That mix is supportive for non-yielding assets such as gold but raises questions for risk appetite more broadly.

Today’s US jobs report, especially the nonfarm payrolls print is pivotal. A softer print would reinforce the slowing growth and policy easing narrative, while a stronger outcome could undercut the recent metals rally. Either way, the labour data has the potential to set the near-term tone not just for rates but for the broader commodity complex.

Geopolitics: signals from Beijing

In Beijing, President Xi Jinping gathered world leaders who share frustration with US policy, including Putin and India's Narendra Modi. The optics alone serve as a reminder of a more fragmented global order, with implications for trade flows, reserve diversification, and strategic alignment.

Geopolitical risks are increasingly shaping commodity markets, with resources used as leverage in strategic disputes. This raises the prospect of supply disruptions and sudden price spikes. The impact typically emerges through two channels: stronger safe-haven demand, particularly for gold, and shifts in supply chains as sanctions and tariffs are imposed or circumvented. The ability of major producers and consumers to work around US-led restrictions could alter flows in oil, gas, and industrial metals in the months ahead.

Fed independence risks a major focus

The bullish narrative in investment metals, which this past week drove gold to a fresh record and lifted silver above USD 40 for the first time in 14 years, is not solely about rate cuts and geopolitics. Governance concerns have added a premium, with President Trump’s repeated attacks on Fed Chair Powell and his recent attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook raising fresh doubts about Fed independence. That independence is viewed as crucial for safeguarding economic stability, controlling inflation, and maintaining global market confidence—a concern that gold and other investment metals naturally absorb as a hedge against political interference.

Our latest views and updates on gold, silver and crude oil:

Gold breaks to record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
OPEC+ supply expansion and Russia’s export woes keep crude rangebound

Other commodities in brief


US natural gas futures
rose for a second week, recovering from an 11-month low to trade above USD 3 per therm. Support came from rising LNG exports and signs of moderating production, with the weekly rig count showing no increase over the past month. These developments have helped offset healthy storage levels, currently 5.6% above the five-year average.

Copper in London briefly traded back above USD 10,000 to a five-month high before retreating amid limited follow-through from traders and speculators. The broader outlook remains supportive, with focus on China and potential government initiatives to stimulate growth. A short-term concern is the continued build-up of copper in US COMEX warehouses, which now hold a record 53.4% of all monitored exchange stocks. Given that the US accounts for only around 6% of global demand, the tariff-driven flows risk reversing, potentially adding supply back into the global market where London sets the benchmark price.

Wheat futures in Chicago and Paris, tracking new-crop prices for December delivery, remain stuck near multi-year lows amid ample global supply and stiff export competition. Pressure comes from large harvests in Russia, Ukraine, and parts of Europe, while Australia’s crop is also expected to be well above average

Chicago soybeans slipped back after an August rebound that had been driven by expectations of a smaller US crop and hopes of progress in US-China trade talks. This week’s gathering of non-Western leaders in Beijing instead underscored the rivalry between the two nations, with tariffs continuing to curb Chinese demand for new-crop US shipments and weighing on prices.

The week ahead in commodities

Sunday
• OPEC+ (eight nations) meet online to assess oil markets
Tuesday
• Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) in Singapore runs through to Friday
• EIA publishes monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
Wednesday
• EIA weekly crude and fuel stock report
Thursday
• IEA monthly Oil Market Report (OMR)
• OPEC monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)
• EIA weekly natural gas storage change
Friday
• USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE)
• CFTC weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report on speculative positions

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US Natural Gas Futures, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
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CBOT Wheat, first month cont. - Source: Saxo
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Invesco Bloomberg Commodity UCITS ETF, tracking the BCOM Total Return Index - Source: Saxo
Related articles/content             
5 Sept 2025: OPEC supply expansion and Russias export woes keep crude rangebound
3 Sept 2025: Gold breaks to fresh record as investors seek alternatives in a fractured world
1 Sept 2025: Silver powers past USD 40 to 14-year highs
1 Sept 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 26 August 2025
28 Aug 2025: Steepening US yield curve and what it means for gold
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21 Aug 2025: Crude oil supported by US inventory decline robust demand and weak positioning
19 Aug 2025: Gold and silver still boxed in waiting for the next catalyst
18 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - Week to 12 August
15 Aug 2025: Commodities weekly metals and softs rise in August as energy and grains slide
14 Aug 2025: Weekly gains across soft commodities on weather and policy-induced risks
13 Aug 2025: WASDE projects record corn crop tighter soybeans wheat under pressure
11 Aug 2025: COT on Forex and Commodities - 11 Aug 2025
8 Aug 2025: Tariff shock sends gold futures soaring yet spot market holds the real signal
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5 Aug 2025: Trump tariffs copper chaos and the metals that still matter
4 Aug 2025: COT Report: Speculators cut metals and grain exposure ahead of copper rout
9 July 2025: NY copper surges on 50 Trump tariff threat
8 July 2025: Gold silver platinum take a timeout after strong first half
7 July 2025: Crude prices steady as OPEC fast-tracks output hike
3 July 2025: Commodities Foundations set for the next bull run
30 June 2025: COT Report: Dollar shorts at four-year high, crude slump rattles speculators
27 June 2025: Commodities weekly Broad reversal led by energy copper and platinum stand tall
25 June 2025: Copper extends rally on tariff-related supply squeeze
24 June 2025: Oil tumbles as Hormuz risk premium evaporates following symbolic retaliation and ceasefire deal
23 June 2025: Oil market on edge as Hormuz risk premium builds
20 June 2025: Commodities weekly Strength in energy and grains offsets pause in precious metals
19 June 2025: Wheat rise on short covering and weather woes but fundamentals still lacking
18 June 2025: Commodities strengthen into midyear as demand for hard assets heat up
16 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sell dollars, buy crude ahead of Middle East escalation
13 June 2025: Commodities weekly Geopolitics lift crude and gold
12 June 2025: Brent crude briefly breaches 70 amid Iran attack threats
10 June 2025: COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling
6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike

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