Market Quick Take – 27 February 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. tech slipped on Nvidia jitters, Europe held up on UK earnings, Asia split between Korea strength and Hong Kong weakness.
• Volatility: VIX high-teens, policy and macro headline sensitivity, S&P 500 ±42pts implied
• Digital Assets: BTC below $68k, IBIT/ETHA softer on day, ETF inflows supportive
• Fixed Income: Weak risk sentiment, soft Tokyo CPI send global bond yields lower
• Currencies: Sterling weaker on political instability concerns, JPY firms slightly on soft Feb. Tokyo CPI data
• Commodities: Gold remains supported in tight range, Crude oil bounces after sell-off as Iran uncertainty remains
• Macro events: Germany Flash Feb. CPI, US Jan. PPI, US Feb. Chicago PMI

Macro headlines

• In the UK, the Green Party took first place in a crucial by-election in Gorton and Denton after ex-Labour minister Andrew Gwynne's resignation there. This traditionally strongly Labour district falling to the greens, with Reform second and Labour in third will fuel doubts about PM Starmer's leadership and raise concerns about political instability affecting fiscal policy and the UK's debt outlook.
• Core prices in Tokyo rose by 1.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest rate since October 2024 and remaining below the BOJ's 2% target. In February 2026, pro-reflation academics joined the BOJ board, indicating cautiousness in rate hikes, though board member Hajime Takata supported additional increases. Governor Kazuo Ueda plans to assess economic data in March and April before making rate decisions.
• Iranian state media declared Tehran will not let enriched uranium leave the country, heightening tensions in US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva ahead of President Trump's deal deadline, raising fears of supply disruptions from the OPEC producer.
• The Trump-Xi summit preparations are faltering, with planning gaps troubling Beijing, reports SCMP. Analysts say preparations are insufficient, bilateral contacts weak, and expected outcomes reduced with less than six weeks to the potential summit..
• U.S. jobless claims rose 4,000 to 212,000 in mid-February, below expectations and recent averages. Continuing claims fell by 31,000 to 1,833,000, showing labor market stability amid slowing hiring. Federal employee claims, watched due to shutdown impacts, dropped by 141 to 554.
• Canadian wages rose 1.94% in December 2025 compared to the same month in the previous year. From 1992 to 2025, wage growth in Canada averaged 2.57%, with a peak of 10.10% in May 2020 and a low of -0.40% in May 2001.
• Eurozone's Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to 98.3 from January's 99.3, below the forecast of 99.8. Sentiment declined in services, manufacturing, and construction, but improved for consumers and retailers. The ESI dropped significantly in France and Italy, remaining stable in Spain, Germany, and the Netherlands. Inflation expectations rose, indicating ongoing pricing pressures.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0745 – France Feb. Flash CPI
0800 – Spain Feb. Flash CPI
0855 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change/Rate
0900 – Eurozone Jan. 1-year and 3-year CPI expectations
1300 – UK Bank of England’s Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak
1300 – Germany Feb. Flash CPI
1330 – US Jan. PPI
1445 – US Feb. Chicago PMI

Earnings this week

• Today: BASF, Holcim, Swiss Re
• Thu: EchoStar, AST SpaceMobile, MongoDB, Crowdstrike, Ross Stores, Sea Limited, Thales, AutoZone, Broadcom, Bayer, Adidas, Dassault Aviation, Veeva Systems, Continental, Costco, Petrobras, Marvell Technology, Merck, Deutsche Post, Reckitt Benckiser, Ciena, Galderma, Kroger, Universal MusicGroup, JD.com, Aviva, OTP Bank

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 closed at 6,908.86 (-0.5%), the Nasdaq 100 ended at 25,034.37 (-1.2%), and the Dow finished flat at 49,499.20 as semiconductors sank after Nvidia’s numbers. Nvidia fell 5.5% even after beating expectations, as investors questioned how long the artificial intelligence (AI) spending boom stays durable at today’s prices, while Salesforce rose 4.0% after a profit beat and a larger buyback plan. Late trading stole the spotlight: Block jumped almost 24% in after-hours after announcing over 4,000 job cuts and lifting its full-year gross profit outlook, and Netflix rose 2.3% in cash trading then popped about 9.0% after hours after walking away from the Warner Bros bidding war.
• Europe: Europe finished mixed as the STOXX 600 slipped to 633.18 (-0.05%) and the Euro STOXX 50 eased to 6,161.56 (-0.2%), while the FTSE 100 hit 10,846.70 (+0.4%). The UK outperformed on company news, with Rolls-Royce up 3.2% after lifting targets and outlining a buyback plan, and London Stock Exchange Group up 9.1% after announcing a £3 billion buyback and higher payouts. RELX added 4.6% as investors rotated into steadier cash flows, while Hikma slid 16.9% on a weaker revenue outlook; next, investors watch whether earnings can keep offsetting AI-led volatility.
• Asia: Asia diverged as Hong Kong retreated while Northeast Asia rallied: the Hang Seng closed at 26,381.02 (-1.4%) and the Hang Seng Tech fell to 5,109.33 (-2.9%), while Japan’s Nikkei ended at 58,753.39 (+0.3%) with TOPIX at 3,880.34 (+1.0%) and South Korea’s Kospi jumped to 6,307.27 (+3.7%). Korea led on chip strength, with Samsung Electronics up 6.1% and SK Hynix up 3.1% after global AI optimism lifted hardware demand hopes, while in Hong Kong HKEX rose 0.8% on strong annual results and a higher payout message. Galaxy Entertainment fell 4.3% after results as investors took profits in Macau gaming, and mainland sentiment stayed cautious ahead of China’s policy meeting; markets now look for follow-through after the U.S. tech wobble.

Volatility

• Volatility remains elevated, but it is not signalling panic. The VIX closed at 18.63 on 26 February, reflecting continued demand for portfolio protection as investors navigate a busy macro backdrop. Markets are particularly sensitive to policy headlines and any data surprises that could shift expectations around growth and interest rates. Into month-end, positioning and event risk continue to play a role in short-term swings.
• S&P 500 expected move (options-implied, this week): approximately ±42 points (±0.61%) into today’s weekly expiry. This suggests markets are pricing a contained but meaningful short-term range rather than a sharp breakout.
• Skew check (today’s expiry): downside protection remains more expensive than upside exposure, indicating investors still prioritise hedging against further declines rather than chasing gains.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are stabilising, but sentiment remains cautious. Bitcoin trades around $67,700, with Ethereum near $2,040, both modestly softer on the day. Solana (~$87) and XRP (~$1.41) are also weaker, reflecting a broader risk-off tone across digital assets.
• In listed crypto vehicles, IBIT (~$38.26) and ETHA (~$15.29) are slightly lower. However, the more constructive signal comes from ETF flows. On 26 February, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of +$254 million, with IBIT leading at +$275.8 million. US spot Ethereum ETFs also saw net inflows of +$6.6 million, with ETHA contributing +$15.3 million.
• The takeaway for investors: while prices remain volatile and headlines around geopolitics and growth continue to weigh on sentiment, institutional demand via ETFs has not disappeared. That flow support can cushion declines, even if it does not eliminate short-term volatility.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields fell again on weak equity risk sentiment, with the US benchmark 2-year yield falling four basis points on Thursday and another basis point in Asia’s Friday session to below 3.42%, with the lowest close since 2022 only slightly lower ust below 3.41%. The benchmark 10-year treasury yield fell more than five basis points to a new low since early December and just below the psychologically key 4.00% mark. That Markets may be nervous ahead of the weekend as the US and Iran are engaged in intense negotiations around Iran’s nuclear programme as the US has gathered an enormous military presence in the region.
• US High yield debt spreads versus US treasuries widened on the latest shift to negative risk sentiment, with the Bloomberg measure we track of high yield spread to US treasury yields widening five basis points Thursday to 282 basis points, a new high for the year and since mid-December.
• Japanese government rallied on a soft Feb. Tokyo CPI number Friday (more above) which puts less pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike – the benchmark 2-year JGB yield fell two basis points to below 1.23% while further out the curve the benchmark 10-year JGB yield dropped a four basis points to below 2.12%

Commodities

• Gold has maintained the price action in a very tight trading range relative to recent volatility, generally hovering just below 5,200, while silver regained its strength after a dip to just below 86.00 on Thursday, rallying late in North American hours and into Friday’s Asian session to above 90.00 again, eyeing this week’s multi-week high near 91.30.
• Crude oil rebounded from a brief sell-off Thursday and into Friday’s Asian session, trading back in the recent range near multi-month highs ahead of another weekend, as the world awaits further Iran-US talks set to take place next week on Iran’s nuclear programme and whether the massive US military presence around Iran will result in hostilities and a disruption of oil export flows from Iran and potentially other regional producers, should oil export flows through the Straits of Hormuz (about 25% of world export flows) be disrupted.

Currencies

• US dollar volatility was minimal Thursday and into early hours Friday as the price action has swung back and forth around 1.1800 in EURUSD and moves elsewhere were generally not associated with a market view on the greenback.
• The JPY gained Friday in Asian trading hours in the wake of a softer than expected Feb. Tokyo CPI release, which, though it means Bank of Japan tightening would seem less urgent, also lowers the currency negative impact of recent comments from PM Takaichi against further tightening and her nomination of two dovish academics to the Bank of Japan board. USDJPY traded as low as 155.54 overnight after closing Thursday north of 156.00, trading 155.85 in late Tokyo hours. EURJPY price action is sticky around 184.00.
• Sterling weakened late Thursday andon Friday in Asian trading hours as election results from a one-off by-election saw a traditionally strong Labour district near Manchester go to the Green party, with Labour ending in third place to a second place Reform. EURGBP rose above the key 0.8750 area that was resistance since back in December. Trading 0.8763 as the market frets the implications that the election disaster could spell the imminent end of Prime Minister Starmer’s time in office, with a new Labour leader potentially further left of center than Starmer.

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