silver

COT Report: Metals, energy demand offset by broad Ag selling

Picture of Ole Hansen
Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

This content is marketing material.

Key points:

  • Our weekly commitment of traders update highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across forex and commodities during the week ending Tuesday, 3 June 2025.
  • In forex, speculators reduced their overall USD short position versus eight IMM futures despite fresh greenback weakness. 
  • In-demand energy and metals being partly offset by broad selling across the agriculture sector.
  • Silver length rose to near a five-year high ahead of the USD 35 breakout, while platinum short selling was seen ahead of surge.

 


    Forex:

    In the latest reporting week to 3 June, the period saw the USD trade broadly weaker. Speculators nevertheless responded by reducing their overall short USD position versus the eight IMM FX futures contracts by 8%, to USD 12.2 billion. At the individual currency level, buying of EUR and MXN was more than offset by selling of JPY and CAD.

     

    9olh_cot1
    Non-commercial IMM forex futures positions versus the dollar
    9olh_cot1a
    Speculators gross dollar position versus eight IMM currency futures

    Strong metals and energy demand offset by agriculture selling

    The reporting week to 3 June showed a major divergence in hedge funds’ appetite for exposure—strong demand for energy and metals, both precious and industrial, was partly offset by broad net selling across the agriculture sector. Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rose 0.4% during the week, with strong gains across both metals sectors being offset by a 3.4% loss in the agriculture sector, where all components except coffee suffered setbacks.

    At the individual commodity level, hedge funds concentrated their demand in WTI crude oil, gas oil, natural gas, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, the broad selling in agriculture was led by soybeans, corn, and sugar.

    Silver—which had yet to break the USD 35 resistance level as of last Tuesday—saw its net long rise by 36% to 45.4k contracts, just 4.3k contracts below the five-year high set in March. In contrast, fresh short selling reduced the platinum net long by 31% to 12.8k contracts, just before prices embarked on a fresh surge that resulted in a 12% rise since last Tuesday.

    9olh_cot2
    Managed money commodities long, short and net positions, as well as changes in the week to 3 June
    9olh_cot3
    Energy
    9olh_cot4
    Precious and industrial metals
    9olh_cot5
    Grains and oilseed futures
    9olh_cot6
    Softs

    What is the Commitments of Traders report?

    The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

    Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
    Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
    Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

    The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

    • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
    • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
    • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

    Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

    Related articles/content             

    6 June 2025: Commodities weekly Gold stalls spotlight shifts to cheaper silver and platinum
    4 June 2025: Crude oil holds firm despite mounting supply glut fears
    3 June 2025: Gold and silver break key levels as copper eyes tariff decision
    2 June 2025: COT Report: Speculators sold crude ahead of OPEC hike
    28 May 2025: Breakout or breakdown Gold silver and platinum face pivotal resistance zones
    26 May 2025: COT Report: Hedge funds return to gold; elevated grains short
    23 May 2025: Commodities weekly Diverging supply trends boost platinum weigh on crude
    21 May 2025: Israel attack risks add modest risk premium to crude prices
    20 May 2025: As gold pauses is platinum ready to shine for investors
    19 May 2025: COT Report: Speculators show measured reaction to trade truce
    16 May 2025: Commodities Weekly - Gold retreats Procyclicals rise amid trade truce optimism
    14 May 2025: Crude stays range-bound despite latest tariff-truce bounce

    13 May 2025: Gold holds steady as tariff truce sparks silver rebound
    12 May 2025: COT Report: Broad risk reduction seen ahead of easing trade tensions
    9 May 2025: Commodities weekly Sentiment improves as trade tensions cool before talks
    8 May 2025: Copper market navigates tariff uncertainty amid tight global supply
    7 May 2025: Agriculture markets diverge as trade war weather and speculators reshape landscape
    6 May 2025: Crude climbs as market digests OPEC hike and shale slowdown risks

    6 May 2025: Gold rises as Chinese demand rebounds post-holiday
    5 May 2025: 
    COT Report: Dollar-selling persists; Crude length trimmed ahead of OPEC output hike
    1 May 2025: 
    Gold corrects sharply from record highs as Chinese demand pauses
    29 April 2025: 
    Copper navigates energy transition supply shocks and market turmoil
    28 April 2025: 
    COT Report: Continued gold selling; USD weakness drives record JPY long
    25 April 2025: 
    Commodities weekly Energy slump overshadows strength in gold and agriculture
    23 April 2025: 
    Blowout top leaves Gold in consolidation mode
    22 April 2025: 
    Commodities return Why allocation matters
    16 April 2025: Whats next as gold hits our USD 3300 target
    15 April 2025: 
    COT Reports show hedge funds racing to cash post-Liberation Day
    11 April 2025: 
    Commodities weekly As chaos reigns whats next for markets
    10 April 2025: 
    YouTube Interview: Gold, silver, copper, oil - prices, supply, demand in 2025


    Podcasts that include commodities focus:


    6 June 2025: Silver rips as Musk-Trump bromance trips
    28 May 2025: Nvidia to determine whether US stocks can achieve new highs
    12 May 2025: As good as it gets on the trade news front
    6 May 2025: 
    Bears hang in at key levels as Palantir rides the retail whirlwind
    23 April 2025: 
    Trump going soft on tariffs versus the direction of travel.
    11 April 2025: 
    US and China are slipping into an economic war
    4 April 2025: 
    Markets melts down as recession risks go global
    1 April 2025: 
    Bracing for Liberation Day
    More from the author             

    Quarterly Outlook

    01 /

    • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

    • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

    • Upending the global order at blinding speed

      Quarterly Outlook

      Upending the global order at blinding speed

      John J. Hardy

      Global Head of Macro Strategy

      We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
    • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

      Quarterly Outlook

      Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

      Jacob Falkencrone

      Global Head of Investment Strategy

    • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

      Quarterly Outlook

      Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

      John J. Hardy

      Global Head of Macro Strategy

    • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

    • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

      Quarterly Outlook

      China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

    • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

    • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

      Quarterly Outlook

      FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

      John J. Hardy

      Global Head of Macro Strategy

    • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Quarterly Outlook

      Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Althea Spinozzi

      Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Disclaimer

    The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    - Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
    - Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

    None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


    Hong Kong

    Contact Saxo

    Select region

    Hong Kong S.A.R
    Hong Kong S.A.R

    Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

    Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

    The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

    The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

    Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.