SAASheader

Is SaaS dead yet? Snowflake and Salesforce show why the obituary feels early

Equities 5 minutes to read
Ruben Dalfovo
Ruben Dalfovo

Investment Strategist

Key takeaways

  • Disruption fears stay loud, but customer commitments stay real, which is the first sign the model still works.

  • Snowflake benefits from the “AI needs data” flywheel, yet guidance tone still drives near-term sentiment.

  • Salesforce proves paid AI is moving beyond demos, but investors still watch for seat compression and pricing pressure.


Snowflake and Salesforce just gave investors something rare in an AI-driven market: fresh evidence. The debate is loud, but the questions are simple. Does artificial intelligence (AI) make software easier to replace. Does it shrink pricing power. Or does it increase demand for the platforms that make AI useful.

This review uses the same lenses from our software as a service (SaaS) disruption shortlist.

The shortlist lens: how to read software earnings in the AI era

Our disruption shortlist is not a “winners and losers” list. It is a way to ask better questions. Earnings are useful because they force management to answer those questions with numbers, customer language, and guidance.

Four lenses matter most for long-term investors:

First, pricing mechanics. Seat-based pricing depends on how many people log in. Task-based pricing depends on how much work gets done. AI agents can reduce seats, but they can also create new tasks.

Second, bundling pressure. When a large platform adds “good enough” features, point tools can lose pricing power even if the product is still good.

Third, proof of paid AI. Demos are easy. Paid add-ons and recurring revenue are harder, and more informative.

Fourth, forward demand. Bookings and backlog measures help you see what customers commit to, not just what they used last quarter.

With that in mind, Snowflake and Salesforce tell two different, but connected stories.

Snowflake: the “picks and shovels” case, with one catch

Snowflake sells cloud software that helps companies store, organise, and analyse data. If AI is a new engine, data is still the fuel. That puts Snowflake closer to “enabler” than “victim”.

The headline from the release is that demand looks healthy and customer commitments beat expectations, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That matters because disruption fears often start with a scary assumption: “customers will pause spending until the dust settles”. Snowflake does not show that kind of freeze.

The softer part is guidance tone. Management guides next quarter product revenue roughly in line with Bloomberg consensus. In a calm market, “in line” is fine. In a nervous market, “in line” can feel like “not enough”, especially when investors want a bold statement that AI demand is accelerating right now.

Snowflake’s strategic message is also clear: it keeps expanding the product set, especially AI tools that sit on top of data already in the platform. AI revenue is still early, with the company previously pointing to about 100 million USD in annual revenue run rate for AI products. That is encouraging, but it also tells you why the stock reaction can be fussy. The promise is big, the proof is still building.

Snowflake’s main risk is not that AI replaces it. The risk is that large platforms bundle more data tooling into broader cloud contracts, turning “best of breed” into “nice to have”. Snowflake must keep earning the right to be the specialised layer.

Salesforce: strong AI traction, but the market wants a cleaner growth story

Salesforce is the leading customer relationship management (CRM) software company. It runs sales and service workflows for many large firms. That scale is an advantage, but the pricing model creates a classic disruption worry: if AI agents do more work, customers may need fewer human users, and therefore fewer seats.

This is why Salesforce sits in a tricky middle ground. It can benefit from AI adoption, yet it also has more to defend. The quarter itself reads well, but guidance lands as lukewarm, and that is what drives the narrative.

The key positive is that Salesforce puts real weight behind Agentforce, its AI agent product. Management says Agentforce annual recurring revenue (ARR) reaches 800 million USD, up 169% year on year, and it highlights a rising count of Agentforce deals. That is the kind of data point our shortlist lens looks for. It signals that AI is moving from “feature” to “paid product”.

The key question is what happens next. Salesforce talks about organic growth re-acceleration later in the year. Investors hear a different subtext: “show me that AI adds revenue, not just buzzwords”. This matters because AI can push pricing in two directions at once. It can expand value if customers pay for outcomes. It can compress value if customers cut seats and negotiate harder.

Salesforce also leans on customer commitments, pointing to remaining performance obligations (RPO), a future revenue indicator. In a market obsessed with disruption, those commitments are a quiet counterpoint: customers still sign multi-year deals when the platform is deeply embedded.

Risks: where the story can still turn

The first risk is budgeting, not technology. If enterprise spending tightens, consumption and new projects slow quickly, even if the product remains strategically important.

The second risk is bundling. AI makes it easier for bigger platforms to ship “good enough” features faster, which can pressure pricing across SaaS.

The third risk is measurement. If companies talk a lot about AI but show little paid adoption, the market’s patience can run out fast. Watch for vague language that replaces clear metrics.

Investor playbook

  • Track customer commitments like RPO and renewals. They show real confidence, not only usage.

  • Separate “AI trials” from “paid AI”. Look for recurring revenue, not just product announcements.

  • Listen for pricing shifts from seats to tasks. It often signals where value is moving.

  • Watch bundling signals. When platforms include features for “free”, standalone tools must prove differentiation.

The obituary is early, but the checklist stays

AI has turned software investing into a weekly debate club. These two earnings calls drag it back to something more useful: what customers commit to, and what they actually pay for. Snowflake looks like plumbing for the AI era, but investors still want guidance that feels bolder than “fine”. Salesforce shows that AI can be monetised, yet the market still asks whether agents add revenue faster than they compress seats.

The neat takeaway is not that SaaS is dead, or saved. It is that disruption is a process, not a headline. Earnings are the weather report. The long-term climate still depends on pricing power, product relevance, and execution.








This material is marketing content and should not be regarded as investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q1 Outlook for Traders: Five Big Questions and Three Grey Swans.

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    Strap yourself in for key market questions that must be answered in 2026.
  • Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q1 Outlook for Investors: “AI” party hangover needs discipline and diversification

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    2026 is a high-valuation, high-dispersion year: the AI story matures, policy becomes less predictabl...
  • Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Investors: Diversify like it’s 2025 – don’t fall for déjà vu

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q4 Outlook for Traders: The Fed is back in easing mode. Is this time different?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    The Fed launched a new easing cycle in late Q3. Will this cycle now play out like 2000 or 2007?
  • Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

  • Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    Quarterly Outlook

    Q3 Macro Outlook: Less chaos, and hopefully a bit more clarity

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    After the chaos of Q2, the quarter ahead should get a bit more clarity on how Trump 2.0 is impacting...
  • Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Upending the global order at blinding speed

    Quarterly Outlook

    Upending the global order at blinding speed

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Macro Strategy

    We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ...
  • Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Quarterly Outlook

    Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever

    Jacob Falkencrone

    Global Head of Investment Strategy

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-hk/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo or its affiliates.


Hong Kong

Contact Saxo

Hong Kong S.A.R
Hong Kong S.A.R

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo”) is a company authorised and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong. Saxo holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Securities); Type 2 Regulated Activity (Dealing in Futures Contract); Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading); Type 4 Regulated Activity (Advising on Securities) and Type 9 Regulated Activity (Asset Management) licenses (CE No. AVD061). Registered address: 19th Floor, Shanghai Commercial Bank Tower, 12 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation. Please click here to view the relevant risk disclosure statements.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-hk/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this site may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and services offered on this website are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity residing in the United States and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. AppStore is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.