Commodities: Foundation grows for the next bull run

Interestingly, platinum, which surged by 48%, thereby topping the performance table by a safe distance, sits outside the index. While eligible for index inclusion, it has failed in recent years to meet the minimum thresholds, as its Commodity Index Percentage (CIP)—a blend of liquidity and production metrics—relative to gold and silver has left its inclusion unlikely for now.

At the other end of the spectrum, the grain sector dragged on performance, led by corn and wheat, weighed down by ample global supplies and signs of another bumper harvest across the northern hemisphere, following a strong southern season led by South America. Soybeans held up amid strong demand for soybean oil towards biofuels, a situation that together with a possible trade agreement with China bodes well for demand into the second half.

Cocoa and coffee ease after recent surge

Ample crude supply caps upside potential in H2

The latest Energy Survey from the Dallas Fed highlighted the risks to US production from falling prices. Asked how they would respond to a WTI price at USD 60 per barrel over the next 12 months, 85 exploration and production firms 60% answered it would mean a small reduction, and 10% a significant reduction. Should the price stay at USD 50 over the next 12 months, that combined figure jumps to near 90%, highlighting a potential floor in global oil prices below which supply will suffer and the market will balance.

In our recently published Q3 Macro Outlook, we called for less chaos and, ideally, a touch more clarity in the months ahead. Whether that materializes will depend heavily on the outcome of ongoing tariff negotiations. Current tariff levels—averaging somewhere between 12% and 18%—continue to act as a drag on both U.S. and global growth. That said, we expect the dollar to remain under pressure, not least because a weaker greenback aligns with the preferences of the current U.S. administration.

As my colleague John J. Hardy noted in the outlook:

Seven forces shaping the next commodity cycle

Looking ahead, with most of the mentioned “Ds” being resource-intensive, we remain broadly constructive on precious and industrial metals, as well as natural gas. Crude oil, however, may face medium-term headwinds as rising OPEC+ output and lower prices have yet to weigh on high-cost producers, while the broader economic implications of Trump-era trade and foreign policy become clearer.

Precious metals: More gains ahead following robust H1 performance

As mentioned, gold up until recently led the charge for months, with silver and platinum recently joining the rally amid a potent mix of rising fiscal debt concerns, tariff-driven supply shocks, a softening labour market, and continued US dollar weakness—developments that may eventually prompt a dovish, and potentially stronger-than-expected, policy shift by the Federal Reserve. Adding to this is the risk of higher inflation and central banks extending their gold-buying spree into a fourth consecutive year; the groundwork for a push toward USD 4,000 within the next twelve months is, in our opinion, within reach.

Silver’s recent break above USD 35 may signal higher prices ahead, also on a relative basis to gold where accelerated central bank demand for gold since 2022 has left silver trailing on a relative basis as seen through the gold-silver ratio trading closer to 95 than its five-year average near 80. A gold rally to USD 4,000 in the next twelve months coinciding with a XAUXAG move to 80 would send silver back to its 2011 record high at USD 50.

Copper supported by energy transition and short-term supply chain dislocations.

The current copper rally—driven by a tangible supply squeeze as inventories shift toward the U.S. ahead of expected tariff announcements—highlights how swiftly fundamentals can reassert themselves in a tight market. Yet beyond this near-term disruption, the global energy transition is laying the groundwork for sustained, structural demand growth.

With mining and refining capacity constrained by years of underinvestment, the risk is clear: supply will struggle to keep pace. The result? A higher baseline for prices and increased volatility. Copper is uniquely positioned at the intersection of short-term bullish momentum and long-term megatrends, steadily reinforcing its reputation as “the metal of the future.”

While China remains well ahead in electrifying its economy, the U.S. is rapidly awakening to the scale of future power needs—from AI-driven data centers and widespread EV adoption to industrial reshoring and soaring cooling demand in a warming climate. Meeting these challenges will require significant grid expansion—and with it, copper, the unrivaled conductor of electricity, the medium- to long-term demand and price outlook remain supportive.