Morning Brew September 8 2025

Good morning!

A tug of war between hope for rate cuts and worries about slow growth in the United States played out on Friday. In the end, the Dow closed 0.5% lower, the S&P 500 down 0.3%, and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. The USD index traded as low as 97.45 before rising to 97.73. Ten-year yields are at 4.08% and the 30-year yields are at 4.77%. EURUSD rose above 1.17, GBPUSD reached 1.35, and USDJPY ended at 147.40. Gold and silver closed the week at 3586 and 40.98, respectively. We are seeing some profit-taking this morning as we were in rather overbought territory. The long precious metals trade seems to be getting very crowded with more banks and classic media being bullish. This reminds me of the old taxi-driver proverb. Bitcoin managed to retake the 110k mark.

Broadcom rose 9.4% after the chipmaker unveiled a $10 billion artificial intelligence chip order. Lululemon Athletica lost almost 20% after cutting its profit forecast. Tesla is proposing a pay package that would give Elon Musk a potential 12% stake in Tesla if the company reaches a market value of $8.5 trillion—nearly eight times its current valuation. At that level, the proposed award would be valued at slightly more than $1 trillion USD. Google was hit with a fine of $3.5 billion USD for leveraging its dominance in ad technology.

U.S. immigration officials raided a Hyundai car battery factory and released a video and photos of workers shackled at the wrists, waist, and ankles. This weighs on US-Korean relations. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that India and Russia seem to have been "lost" to the deepest, darkest China.

Trump called for a ban on Muslims entering the US until the Representatives (himself, I assume) understand “what is going on.” He also posted a worrying message, stating that Chicago was about to find out why “it called the Department of War.” Commerce Secretary Lutnick went vocal against India over the weekend.

Basically the US managed to alienate 50% of the worlds population in a single weekend.

The next Apple event is scheduled for tomorrow evening, and many new products are expected: at least the iPhone 17, a new Watch, TV and Earpods.

China's trade surplus came in even higher in USD terms, at 102.3 billion USD rather than the 99.2 billion expected. Both imports and exports were below expectations, but imports deviated more.

The coming week has a few key data points: the US and Chinese CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is releasing the updated employment data for the past 12 months. The same data point last month was used to justify a 50 bps cut in September last year. Goldman Sachs expects a downward correction between 500k to 1 million jobs, while Scott Besset expected the revision to be as large as 800k on TV.

Trade negotiations, US politics, and tensions between the US, China, Russia, and India are likely to shift global markets.

Trade safely and be ready for sharp moves at any point.

Monday, September 8

• Japan: Q2 GDP
• China Trade
• Germany Industrial Output
• Major Earnings: Oracle (after close); Planet Labs; Casey’s General Stores; Mission Produce

Tuesday September 9

• BLS Adjustment
• Apple Event

Wednesday, September 10

• China: CPI & PPI for August
• Sweden GDP, Norway & Denmark CPI
• U.S.: Producer Price Index

Thursday, September 11

• Eurozone: Rate Decision
• U.S.: Jobless Claims, CPI
• Major Earnings: Kroger; Lovesac

Friday, September 12

• UK GDP
• U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment