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Morning Brew September 6 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Good Morning
There is quite a change in the focus on rates – hikes are mainly off the table and the big question is when we see cuts – peak rate futures are seen in November but with less than 50% chance (implied 11 bps) and a full cut is priced in in June 2024.
10 Year Rates rose to 4.25 on Fed Governor Christopher Waller stating the Fed may not change rates soon. Rising oil prices will fuel inflation – at least in certain metrics. To add confusion, US Factory Orders declined – albeit less than feared. while Goldman Sachs lowered the probability for a recession.
Weak PMI in Europe further weighed on risk sentiment and global Indexes fell while the USD gained.
The Dow fell 0.56%, the S&P 0.42% and the Nasdaq 0.08%, the USD Index rose to 104.80, EURUSD 1.0733, GBPUSD 1.2577 and USDJPY 147.20. Gold broke below the 50 day simple moving averaes and are trading at 23.55 and 1927, Bitcoin fell below 26k. Tesla gained on reported higher deliveries in China, Airbnb and Blackstone will join the S&P 500 and rise 7 and 3.6% respectively.
Today we are awaiting US Trade data, the Canadian Rate decision, S&P PMI and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Comments by Collin and Logan will be closely watched
In an unclear macro environment, technical levels are watched closely. https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/technical-analysis/cramers-corner-daily-technical-update-05092023
Todays Agenda:
Wednesday
Feds Collins and Logan speak
- Data AU GDP, DE Industrial Orders, US Trade, PMIs
Thusday
Harker Goolsbee, Williams, Bostic and Bowman speak
- Data China Trade, DE Industrial Production, CH FX Reserves, US Initial Jobless claimsFriday
- Data Japan GDP, DE HICP,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
- FBTPU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- FGBLU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- FGBMU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- FGBSU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- FGBXU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- FOATU3 will expire 06 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- CU3 will expire 07 Sep 2023 at 09:00 GMT
- LBRU3 will expire 08 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
- WV3 will expire 08 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
- GASOILUKSEP23 will expire 08 Sep 2023 at 15:00 GMT