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Morning Brew September 23 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: International PMI and Politics to make the day
Good Morning,
Another strong day
Shares of Nvidia gained 3.9% on news it will invest $100 billion in OpenAI. It will also supply OpenAI with data center chips. Apple received a boost from a strong sales outlook for the iPhone 17
Indexes ended at records again as the Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P 500 0.4%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Porsche cut its profit outlook and delayed an EV launch, sending shares down 7.2%. BYD dropped 2.2% after Berkshire Hathaway fully exited its stake.
US yields remain calm at 4.10 for the 10-year, the USD Index is trading at 97.32, EUR/USD is 1.18, GBP/USD 1.35, and USD/JPY 147.80. The Swiss Franc is trading calmly at 0.7625 against the USD and 0.9350 against the Euro. Gold and silver are off yesterday's highs but still very strong at 3753 and 43.80, respectively. ETF holdings are rising at the fastest pace in 3 years. Bitcoin fell to 112k.
Headlines:
- Fannie Mae issued an interesting study on US housing affordability: in order to return to the 2019 affordability levels, the median price of a house would have to fall 38%, the median household income would have to increase by 60%, the 30-year interest rate would have to fall from 6.5% to 2.35%, or a combination thereof. This explains a lot of the US political sentiment.
- Miran stated that current Fed policy is 'very restrictive' and risks the Fed's employment mandate. He suggested the Fed funds rate should be in the mid-2% range, nearly 2 percentage points lower than the current level. This makes Powell's comments today even more interesting.
- Several nations recognize Palestine as a state, defying the US.
- Jimmy Kimmel will be back on TV tonight after many protests against his suspension.
- Copenhagen Airport, the busiest in the Nordic region, said it reopened early on Tuesday after drone sightings halted all take-offs and landings for nearly four hours.
- Tylenol maker Kenvue fell 7.5% as it was expected that Trump would issue an announcement linking the painkiller to autism – he did make the statement overnight.
- The US administration softened the 100k USD announcement for visas, raining comments on the TACO trade again.
- Orestad wins a legal battle in the US and shares look to gain 4%.
Tuesday, September 23
- International PMI
- Fed Chair Powell Speech
Wednesday, September 24
- Australia PMI
- DE IFO Index
- Speakers: Mary Daly
Thursday, September 25
- Swiss SNB Decision
- US Durable Goods Orders
- Initial Jobless Claims
- Speakers: Goolsbee, Williams, Daly
Friday, September 26
- US PCE Deflator
- Canada GDP
- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence
- Speakers: Barkin
- Erik goes on Holiday