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Morning Brew September 1 2026
Summary: Is the Yen`s era of financing currency coming to an end?
Good morning. Rates are back at the centre of the market discussion, with Japan’s long bond yield at 3%, U.S. 10-year yields testing the 2025 highs and Europe’s long end making fresh post-euro-crisis highs.
The USD Index is relatively calm at 99.50. EUR/USD is at 1.16, GBP/USD at 1.3535 and USD/JPY near 159.85. Gold and silver are at 4,430 and 66.40. The Swiss franc trades around 0.94 against the euro and 0.81 against the dollar. Interest-rate differentials are starting to show.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,686 on Monday, its second consecutive decline, as Middle East tensions and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment. The Dow lost 0.7% to 53,186, while the Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.1%. Nine of the eleven S&P sectors closed lower, led by communication services and utilities. Amazon was the largest drag, falling 2.5% after the FTC filed a lawsuit over ad pricing, while Edison International collapsed 23.1%. Nvidia will invest USD 3.5 billion in Taiwan’s MediaTek to deepen collaboration in custom AI chips. After hours, Anthropic signed a USD 35 billion cloud-computing deal with Nvidia-backed Lambda for a Texas data centre.
European equities also moved lower. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.6% to 651 and the Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.0% to 6,420, with higher oil prices and the U.S.–Iran flare-up weighing on sentiment. Volumes were around 40% below normal with London closed for a bank holiday. ASML fell 2.9%, Siemens Energy dropped 5.0%, and the DAX lost 1.2% to 26,258. The SMI fell 0.8%, led lower by Holcim and Roche. Oil majors including TotalEnergies, Shell and Eni were among the few gainers.
In Switzerland, a parliamentary committee moved toward a softer counterproposal on UBS capital rules. The proposal would allow UBS to back foreign subsidiaries with 50% CET1 capital and 50% AT1 instruments, instead of the stricter government version.
Shein fell 8% on its first day of trading in Hong Kong.
Kevin Warsh told G20 finance leaders that the world is seeing a global investment surge that is helping to power growth, reversing the past savings glut that kept capital in low-yielding instruments.
Asia’s factory data was stronger, helped by global demand for AI hardware. China, Japan and South Korea all saw manufacturing activity expand in August, supported by chips, computers and other AI-related products, even as the Middle East war adds uncertainty and cost pressure.
China’s RatingDog General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August from 50.9 in July, staying above the 50 line and beating expectations of 51.0.
Today, yields are the key item to watch. The PMIs and euro-area inflation would need to deliver a major surprise to take centre stage.
Tuesday, 1 September 2026
Macro: Euro-area flash HICP inflation and unemployment; final manufacturing PMIs for the euro area, Germany and the UK; U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings.
Central banks / speakers: RBA rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Broadcom expected.
Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Macro: Euro-area building permits; U.S. ADP employment report.
Central banks / speakers: Bank of Canada rate decision.
Corporate earnings: No major global large-cap focus.
Thursday, 3 September 2026
Macro: Final services and composite PMIs for the euro area and Germany; euro-area PPI; U.S. initial jobless claims and trade balance; U.S. ISM Services PMI.
Corporate earnings: Dell and Palo Alto Networks expected.
Friday, 4 September 2026
Macro: Euro-area retail sales; U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings; Canada employment report.