Morning Brew November 24 2025

Good morning,

We are witnessing massive shifts in expectations, sending markets into turmoil. From basically 50/50 for a 25 bps cut/no cut at the beginning of last week to only 28% in favor of a cut early Friday, to 60% in favor of a cut by Friday, causing indexes to rise and end the week less dramatically. The Dow ended up 1.1%, the S&P 500 up 1%, and the Nasdaq up 0.9%. For the week, they were down 1.9%, 2%, and 2.7%, respectively. Nvidia ended the week down 5.9% despite great earnings.

10-year yields fell to 4.06%, and the USD Index ended the week at 100.20. EUR/USD was at 1.1510, GBP/USD at 1.3090, and USD/JPY at 156.90. The Swiss Franc was at 0.8090, Gold at 4065, and Silver at 50.00.

The futures expiry for Gold and Silver will occur this week and will be special due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. As the first notice date is Friday, the roll will mostly occur on Wednesday. Saxo will close the December contracts on Wednesday to avoid deliveries.

Comments from New York Fed President John Williams that interest rates can fall "in the near term" boosted the likelihood of a rate cut at the Fed's December 9-10 meeting. U.S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene announced on Friday she was resigning from the House of Representatives. The United States is poised to launch a new phase of Venezuela-related operations in the coming days, according to Reuters. The United States and Ukraine are in discussions on a new peace plan, as the one proposed Friday was widely seen as too favorable to Moscow. Meta shut down internal research into the mental health effects of Facebook and Instagram after finding causal evidence that its products harmed users’ mental health.

Our strats team has taken a look at AI Stocks with Charu and Ruben writing on the topic:

AI boom or bubble? Here’s an 8-point checklist to separate strength from hype

• Strong earnings from AI leaders have not fully eased concerns about stretched valuations and execution risks.
• In our view, the next phase of the AI cycle will reward companies that can fund, scale, and monetise AI sustainably — while those relying heavily on hype or debt may face more volatility.
• Investors can use a simple checklist to navigate the noise, while recognising both the opportunities and the risks.

When AI meets gravity: what valuation history is really telling investors

• The latest sell-off hit AI and big tech hardest, against a backdrop of valuations already well above long-run averages.
• History shows that when valuations are this high, outcomes vary a lot, so the key is scenario thinking rather than panic.
• Simple tools such as position sizing, diversification and staggered buying can help portfolios cope with both bull and bear paths.

The coming week will be another interesting one; risk sentiment is on the brink as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday. Politics will play a crucial role with a possible agreement in Ukraine while we look at potential military action in Central America.

Trade safely

Monday November 24
- Germany IFO
- Zoom

Tuesday November 25
- Germany GDP, US PPI & Retail Sales
- AlibabaGroup, Nio, Kohls, Dell, Workday,

Wednesday November 26
- AU CPI,  US Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods PCE 
- JohnDeere
- Livestream Commodity Event

Thursday November 27
- 
Thanksgiving

Friday November 28
- Japan CPI, Swiss KOF, European CPI, 
Black Friday