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Morning Brew November 15 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Blow Off
Good Morning
A lower CPI caused a blow off in risk sentiment: the S&P500 surged 1.9% to 4,495, and the Nasdaq 100 soared 2.1% to 15,812, the GER 40 surged to 15630 . both eh Annual CPI and the Core CPI came 0.1% below expectations. Trading volumes made up for Monday with almost 13 billion shares traded in US Exchanges.
The USD lost in value significantly EURUSD rose to 10867, GBPUSD 1.2470 and USDJPY fell to 150.70. Gold and Silver rose to 1968 and 23.20. The USD Index dropped to 104.20
10 year Yields fell to below 4.50 to currently trade 4.45 and interest rate traders are pricing in 4 rate cuts by end 2024. The probability of a hike in December 2023 is now less than 1%.
The US Senate has agreed on a spending bill so once again the debt ceiling is resolved.
The German ZEW improved again, the expectations rose to 9.8 in November from -1.and current conditions changed little, China's industrial output and retail sales growth beat expectations in October
Today, key impulses will come from the US PPI as well as the retail sales, Cisco earnings, Fed Speakers and the Biden / Xi summit.
The key question will be if Risk sentiment and lower yields can hold.
Watch Kim Cramers technical assessment later today as many charts will have changed significantly.
Key Events
Tuesday
- Data: UK Unemployment, Sweden CPI, EU GDP, De ZEW, US CPI
- Earnings Meituan, SMC, RWE, Mitsubishi UJF, Alcon, Home Depot,
Wednesday
- Data Japan GDP, China Retail Sales, UK, IT & FR CPI, US Retail Sales, PPI,
- Earnings Tencent, TJX, Cisco, Palo Alto, Target, Infineon, JD,
Thusday
- Data Japan Trade Balance, Philly Fed Business Index, Initial Jobless Claim
- Earnings Siemens, Copart, Walmart, Ross Stores, Applied Materials, Alibaba.
Friday
- Data UK Retail Sales, EU HICP Final
- Earnings Johnson Controls International, Assicurazioni Generali, Tokio Marine
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
KC3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
CLZ3 will expire 20 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
OILUSDEC23 will expire 16 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
COFFEENYDEC23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 16:00 GMT
FRA40NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
NETH25NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
NOR25NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT
SPAIN35NOV23 will expire 17 Nov 2023 at 09:00 GMT