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Morning Brew September 1 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Sell in May and go away but remember to return in November?
Good Morning,
What a day as month ultimo!
Risk off sentiment hit traders without a clear justification, I expect a mix of rising yields, lack of conviction and profit taking. The old proverb Sell in May and go away but remember to return in November was not correct for the fist part, the second may prove accurate but mind the risks
Equities fell across he board, with the Dow at -0.9%, the S&P -1.86%, The Nasdaq 100 -2.4% and the Dax -0.9%. Gold lost 1.57% and Silver 3.3%, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to 69300 and 2500.EURUSD gained 0.26%, USDJPY fell 0.9% and GBPUSD 0.49%.
Oil rose against the trend.
Amazon exceeded expectations after the regular close, EPS was $1.43 vs $1.14 expected; Shares rose 5% in extended trading. Apple beat as well, EPS were $1.64 vs$1.60 estimated, shares fell 2% in extended trading.
China reported a higher than expected PMI even as the IMF issues a warning on Asian growth due to the growing trade frictions and the Chinese property slump.
As I pointed out, this kind of spike is not unexpected in the current high-risk environment and it is likely to continue for at least the next few days. This does not necessarily mean the selloff will continue, we could also see a FOMO move like we witnessed in August.
Today, we are expecting earnings by large Oil and the CBOE and in terms of economic data international PMI and as the highlight the US labor market data. Next Wednesday after the election result may clearer and the rate decision is though, trading could normalize again. Consider carefully how much risk you want to carry into the hot phase.
Hurricane and the Boeing strike effects are seen to weigh on employment and the Nonfarm Payroll is expected to be reported at 113k from 254k last month, the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.1%.
Amazon exceeded expectations,. EPS was $1.43 vs $1.14 expected,. Shares rose 5% in extended trading. Apple beat as well, EPS were $1.64 vs$1.60 estimated,. Shares fell 2% in extended trading.
Data:
Friday
- Data Global PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings, Exxon, Chevron, CBOE