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Morning Brew March 7 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Powell should make or break the day
Good Morning,
Today’s key event will be the testimony of Jerome Powell before the Senate Banking Committee at 16 CET.
The key question will be if he considers recent high inflationary data as a bump in the road or a fundamental change and thus if he sees any need to adjust the Feds rate path.
At the moment markets are optimistically calm and largely at the same levels as yesterday, the US 500is trading at 4052, the US 30 33450, the US tech 100 12320, the Swiss 20 was just at 11111 and the GER40 at 15631.
The USD Index fell slightly to 104.30 with the EURUSD 1.0680, GBPUSD 1.2035 and USDJPY 135.95. Gold and Silver are a tad lower at 1845 and 21.03.
The Aussie slipped from 0.6775 to below 0.65 on a dovish outlook by the Royal Bank of Australia. The RBA hiked by 25 BPS as expected. Lowes comments were understood by trader to mean there would be only one more hike and that the peak rate may be below 4%.
If you are worried about the relatively high Equity levels, options – or insurance – are at a very low level with the March Vix Future trading below 20.
Today
Data: Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee, AU Trade Trade Balance, China Trade Data, AU Rate decision
Earnings: Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli Ashtead Group Sea Ltd Crowdstrike Ferguson
Wednesday:
Data: EU GDP Revised YY, US International Trade, CA Trade Balance,, Ca Rate decision
Earnings: Legal & General adidas AG Brown-Forman Geberit AG Thales SA China Unicom China United Network Ping An Bank
Thursday
Data: Japan GDP, China PPI, CPI, US Initial Jobless claims
Earnings Wheaton Precious Metals Ulta Beauty Hannover Rueck Deutsche Post PRADA Contemporary Amperex
Friday
Data: DE HICP, UK GDP,US Nonfarm Payrolls,
Earnings: Daimler Truck Holding DiDi Global Inc ZTE BNP Oracle JD.com
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
CONFH3 will expire 07 Mar 2023
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