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Morning Brew March 22 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Spring brings Volatility
Good morning,
As expected, yesterday was an interesting day!
The SNB caught markets on the wrong foot by lowering rates and issuing a weaker inflation outlook. The Swiss Franc lost to 0.8985 against the USD and 0.9736 against the Euro, the SMI closet moderately higher.
Strong economic data out of the US then raised fears that the interest rate gap between the US and other economies may widen – not because the US rises but others cut faster. In the end the USD index rose to near 104 again with little volatility in the 10-year yields. EURUSD is 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2640, USDJPY 151.45. The Turkish Central bank hiked rates against expectation to now 50%. The TRY briefly gained to 31.75 before losing value again.
The big losers yesterday were precious metals that fell to 2172and 24.50 lows. Ther was no clear reason but seems to have been caused by profit taking and some worry if the rise was to high too fast. Bitcoin remained at 66500.
Equities seem unstoppable, the US 500 is 5244, the US 30 keeps looking at the 40k at now 39815, the US Tech 100 NAS is 18340 and the Nikkei 40900.
The Reddit IPO went well and is tradable now (RDDT:xnys) last price was 50.31 after the IPO at 34. . Apple gave up 4% after being accused by US Authorities of creating a monopoly, Goldman Sachs gained the same amount after an analyst upgrade and Micron Technology could rise more than 14%. Volumes were below the 20 day average Nike gave a fairly bleak outlook, and the sports industry is worth watching. Adidas and Puma are looking weak in the
Today’s agenda is fairly empty, the Japanese CPI came in line with expectations at 2.8%, UK retail sales and the German IFO and the Canadian Retail sales normally will not have a real market impact.
I remain at the same stance as yesterday, don`t overexpose and expect sharp moves, consider options for speculative positions with a focus on nominal not the premium.
Data next week, earnings follow.
Monday
- Data US New Home Sales
- Earnings:
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence
- Earnings:
Wednesday
- Data AU CPI EU Consumer Confidence,
- Earnings:
Thursday
- Data Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims, University of Michigan sentiment
- Earnings:
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, France CPI, Swiss FX reserves, US PCE
- Earnings:
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT
NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT