Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 22 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Spring brings Volatility


Good morning,

As expected, yesterday was an interesting day!

The SNB caught markets on the wrong foot by lowering rates and issuing a weaker inflation outlook. The Swiss Franc lost to 0.8985 against the USD and 0.9736 against the Euro, the SMI closet moderately higher.

Strong economic data out of the US then raised fears that the interest rate gap between the US and other economies may widen – not because the US rises but others cut faster. In the end the USD index rose to near 104 again with little volatility in the 10-year yields. EURUSD is 1.0840, GBPUSD 1.2640, USDJPY 151.45. The Turkish Central bank hiked rates against expectation to now 50%. The TRY briefly gained to 31.75 before losing value again.

The big losers yesterday were precious metals that fell to 2172and 24.50 lows. Ther was no clear reason but seems to have been caused by profit taking and some worry if the  rise was to high too fast. Bitcoin remained at 66500.

Equities seem unstoppable, the US 500 is 5244, the US 30 keeps looking at the 40k at now 39815, the US Tech 100 NAS is 18340 and the Nikkei 40900.

The Reddit IPO went well and is tradable now (RDDT:xnys) last price was 50.31 after the IPO at 34. . Apple gave up 4% after being accused by US Authorities of creating a monopoly, Goldman Sachs gained the same amount after an analyst upgrade and Micron Technology could rise more than 14%. Volumes were below the 20 day average Nike gave a fairly bleak outlook, and the sports industry is worth watching. Adidas and Puma are looking weak in the

Today’s agenda is fairly empty, the Japanese CPI came in line with expectations at 2.8%, UK retail sales and the German IFO and the Canadian Retail sales normally will not have a real market impact.

I remain at the same stance as yesterday, don`t overexpose and expect sharp moves, consider options for speculative positions with a focus on nominal not the premium.

 

Data next week, earnings follow.

Monday
- Data US New Home Sales
- Earnings:

Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, US Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence
- Earnings:

Wednesday
- Data AU CPI EU Consumer Confidence,

- Earnings:

Thursday
- Data Swiss KOF, DE Unemployment, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims, University of Michigan sentiment

- Earnings:

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, France CPI, Swiss FX reserves, US PCE
- Earnings:

 

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

NGJ4 will expire 25 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

TTFMJ4 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

GOLDAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

HEATINGOILAPR24 will expire 26 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

NATGASUSAPR24 will expire 22 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.