Morning Brew March 18 2024

Good morning,

We are heading into the Central bank with mixed sentiment and I am very curious were we will stand in Equities, FX and commodities at he end of this week.  I have listed all Central Bank decisions and the most likely action below, the BoJ and the Swiss National Bank are particularly interesting. For the US Federal Reserve, any Action would be a huge surprise but he new Dot Plot and Powell`s press conference will be closely watched.

Equities had closed the week on a weak note with Tech under the most pressure, with the Dow down 0.5% for the day, -0.02% for the week, the S&P500 lost 0.07% and 0.1% for the week and the Nasdaq -1% and 0.7% for the week.  Nvidia closed at 877.90 and Tesla 163.56. Expiry went calmer than feared. This night, China reported stronger than expected Retail Sales and this boosts sentiment a little, most indexes are in the green with the Nikkei leading the pack back at 39700.

Ten-year yields are trading at 4.29 and the USD Index 103.47. EURUSD is 1.0887, GBPUSD 1.2735 and USDJPY 149.16.

Charu`s key points for the week ahead

• Bank of Japan’s pivot away from negative rates is becoming a baseline view ahead of Tuesday’s announcement but gains in the Japanese yen could remain limited by dovish commentary and risks of a hawkish surprise by the Fed the next day. 
• Two-way risks for the dollar this week as markets anticipate a hawkish shift in dot plot.
• CHF sees downside risks as SNB can surprise with a rate cut or stronger FX language. 
• GBP also has a lot at stake this week with long positioning stretched, and BOE meeting vote split and Nvidia-driven equity momentum in focus. 

Last week was the week of metals with gold, silver, and copper rising. This morning we are a little lower than on Friday with  Gold at 2147, Silver at 25.03 and Copper 410. Peter as well as Ole wrote on the topic with Ole focusing on the metals and Peter the corresponding stocks.

Peter: Signs of green metals comeback

Ole: Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors

Crypto remains strong with Bitcoin at 68500 and Ethererum 3620.

This week will be largely driven by central banks unless there are other significant surprises.

19^th Australia (94% no action), Japan  (56% no action)

20^th  Indonesia (55% no action) , Czech (78% cut) Brazil (71% cut) US (99% no action)

21^st Switzerland (70% cut) , Turkey (80% hike) UK (97% no action)

Key events of the week:

Monday
- Data  Japan Machine Orders, China Retail Sales. EU HICP
- Earnings: BNP

Tuesday
- Data Japan Rate Decision, Germany ZEW, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Xiaomi, China Unicom

Wednesday
- Data China Interest Rate, UK CPI, US Rate Decision.

- Earnings: PDD, General Mills, Micron,

Thursday
- Data Japan Trade, EU PMI, Switzerland Turkey and UK  Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, PMI,

- Earnings: China Mobile, Enel, BMW, Nike, Fedex, Lululemon, Accenture.

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK CPI, Germany CPI, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings:

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CDH4 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

MCDH4 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

CLJ4 will expire 20 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

PLJ4 will expire 20 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

US2000MAR24 will expire 15 Mar 2024 at 08:00 GMT

OILUSAPR24 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

PLATINUMAPR24 will expire 19 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT