Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew March 18 2024

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  Central Banks Ahead


Good morning,

We are heading into the Central bank with mixed sentiment and I am very curious were we will stand in Equities, FX and commodities at he end of this week.  I have listed all Central Bank decisions and the most likely action below, the BoJ and the Swiss National Bank are particularly interesting. For the US Federal Reserve, any Action would be a huge surprise but he new Dot Plot and Powell`s press conference will be closely watched.

Equities had closed the week on a weak note with Tech under the most pressure, with the Dow down 0.5% for the day, -0.02% for the week, the S&P500 lost 0.07% and 0.1% for the week and the Nasdaq -1% and 0.7% for the week.  Nvidia closed at 877.90 and Tesla 163.56. Expiry went calmer than feared. This night, China reported stronger than expected Retail Sales and this boosts sentiment a little, most indexes are in the green with the Nikkei leading the pack back at 39700.

Ten-year yields are trading at 4.29 and the USD Index 103.47. EURUSD is 1.0887, GBPUSD 1.2735 and USDJPY 149.16.

Charu`s key points for the week ahead

  • Bank of Japan’s pivot away from negative rates is becoming a baseline view ahead of Tuesday’s announcement but gains in the Japanese yen could remain limited by dovish commentary and risks of a hawkish surprise by the Fed the next day. 
  • Two-way risks for the dollar this week as markets anticipate a hawkish shift in dot plot.
  • CHF sees downside risks as SNB can surprise with a rate cut or stronger FX language. 
  • GBP also has a lot at stake this week with long positioning stretched, and BOE meeting vote split and Nvidia-driven equity momentum in focus. 

Last week was the week of metals with gold, silver, and copper rising. This morning we are a little lower than on Friday with  Gold at 2147, Silver at 25.03 and Copper 410. Peter as well as Ole wrote on the topic with Ole focusing on the metals and Peter the corresponding stocks.

Peter: Signs of green metals comeback

Ole: Commodity weekly: Green shoots seen across key sectors

Crypto remains strong with Bitcoin at 68500 and Ethererum 3620.

 

This week will be largely driven by central banks unless there are other significant surprises.

19th Australia (94% no action), Japan  (56% no action)

20th  Indonesia (55% no action) , Czech (78% cut) Brazil (71% cut) US (99% no action)

21st Switzerland (70% cut) , Turkey (80% hike) UK (97% no action)

Key events of the week:

Monday
- Data  Japan Machine Orders, China Retail Sales. EU HICP
- Earnings: BNP

Tuesday
- Data Japan Rate Decision, Germany ZEW, Canada CPI,
- Earnings: Xiaomi, China Unicom

Wednesday
- Data China Interest Rate, UK CPI, US Rate Decision.

- Earnings: PDD, General Mills, Micron,

Thursday
- Data Japan Trade, EU PMI, Switzerland Turkey and UK  Rate Decision, US Jobless Claims, PMI,

- Earnings: China Mobile, Enel, BMW, Nike, Fedex, Lululemon, Accenture.

Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK CPI, Germany CPI, Canada Retail Sales
- Earnings:

Expiries

Physically Settled Futures

CDH4 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

MCDH4 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

CLJ4 will expire 20 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

PLJ4 will expire 20 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Expiring CFDs

US2000MAR24 will expire 15 Mar 2024 at 08:00 GMT

OILUSAPR24 will expire 18 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

PLATINUMAPR24 will expire 19 Mar 2024 at 15:00 GMT

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
The Circle 38
CH-8058
Zürich-Flughafen
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law. 

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.