Morning Brew July 27 2026

Good morning.

We are starting  the week with a more constructive tone. Oil is lower, equity futures point to a strong open, the U.S. dollar is giving back some ground, and yields are easing. The mood is helped by tentative progress in the Middle East and continued optimism around the AI infrastructure theme, but the week ahead is packed with earnings and central-bank risk.

Besides earnings, the focus will be on three major central banks. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday, the Bank of England on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan on Friday. All three are expected to leave rates unchanged for now, but the Fed is the least certain, with interest-rate futures implying only around a 68% probability of no action. The probabilities for no change in the UK and Japan are much higher, at roughly 90% and 97%, respectively.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are down 4 basis points to 4.63%, which has nudged the dollar lower across the board. The euro is up 0.3% at 1.1408, while the dollar is 0.2% weaker against the yen at 163.54. The USD Index is at 101.20 after 101.50 last week. Gold and silver are also firmer at 4,085 and 59.30. Bitcoin keeps meandering the 65.000

The softer dollar and lower yields are supporting equities. S&P 500 futures are up 0.7%, while Nasdaq futures are 1.1% higher. In Europe, Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up 0.4%, DAX futures are 0.6% higher, and FTSE futures are broadly unchanged

The main themes this morning are progress around Iran, severe wildfires in Spain and France, and another reminder that AI infrastructure remains at the centre of market attention. Nvidia is reportedly discussing financing guarantees for OpenAI as part of a large data-centre project, while CXMT surged on its Shanghai debut and briefly became China’s most valuable listed company.

On Iran, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same. Net-net, developments in the Middle East moved in a more constructive direction over the weekend. That adds some credibility to the idea that oil above USD 100 a barrel tends to encourage de-escalatory behaviour from both sides.

In China, shares of CXMT surged 470% on their Shanghai debut in Asia’s biggest IPO of the year. The rally briefly lifted the chipmaker’s market capitalisation to around CNY 3.3 trillion, or roughly USD 487 billion, compared with a valuation of about USD 85.5 billion during the IPO process. The stock opened at CNY 49.50 versus an issue price of CNY 8.66 per share The move is another sign that investors remain willing to pay up for strategic semiconductor exposure, even after the recent selloff in global technology stocks.

Nvidia is also back in the headlines. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company is in talks to provide roughly USD 250 billion in financing guarantees for OpenAI as part of a massive data-centre project. The backstop would help OpenAI lease a 10-gigawatt project being developed by SoftBank’s energy subsidiary in southern Ohio. The story underlines the same key question for the AI trade: demand is real, but the funding bill keeps getting bigger.

For the week ahead, earnings, the Middle East and central banks will be the main drivers. Unless one of the big central banks surprises markets, sentiment will likely remain most sensitive to corporate guidance, oil headlines and whether the AI spending story continues to be rewarded. Trade carefully and keep your risk under control. There are some positive signals this morning, but the market remains vulnerable to surprises.  

Monday, July 27, 2026
Macro: Japan PPI DE IFO Index Euro-area M3 money supply, loans to households and loans to companies.US Durable Goods orders
Central banks / speakers: No major central-bank decision scheduled.
Corporate earnings: AstraZeneca, Cadence Design Systems, Nucor, Welltower, Celestica, F5 Networks, Universal Health Services. Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Macro: U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence; Australian CPI figures.
Central banks / speakers: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks; FOMC meeting begins.
Corporate earnings: Boeing, Coca-Cola, UPS, PayPal, Visa, Mondelez, Texas Instruments, Danaher, Mercedes-Benz, Unilever, Air Liquide, Mondelez, Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Macro: No major U.S. macro release before the Fed decision.
Central banks / speakers: FOMC rate decision at 20:00 CET, followed by the press conference at 20:30 CET.
Corporate earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, Lam Research, Starbucks, Procter & Gamble, General Dynamics, UBS. Deutsche Bank, BASF, Nordex, Porsche AG, Airbus, L’Oréal, Hermès, ENI,Telecom Italia, Rio Tinto, ACS, Telefonica, CaixaBank, Endesa, Reckitt Benckiser, Glencore, Thursday, July 30, 2026
Macro: German GDP and CPI; euro-area GDP, unemployment and sentiment indicators; U.S. GDP and PCE data.
Central banks / speakers: Bank of England rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Shell, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Sanofi, Cigna, Valero Energy. BMW, Adidas, Symrise, Heidelberg Materials, Drägerwerk, MTU, Aixtron, ZF, Kion, Gerresheimer, KnorrBremse, Anheuser Busch, Saint Gobain, Société Générale, Schneider Electric, Veolia, Sanofi, Air France-KLM, Renault, Ferrari, Enel, Prada, ING, BBVA, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, BAE Systems Friday, July 31, 2026
Macro: China PMI; euro-area CPI; U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Central banks / speakers: Bank of Japan rate decision.
Corporate earnings: Siemens Healthineers, Puma, Hensoldt, Axa, Crédit Agricole, Moderna, Exxon Mobil, Chevron.