Market Quick Take - Treasury yields rise and Walmart slides as Jackson Hole comes into view - 21 August 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: A renewed rise in bond yields and frozen Iran talks kept markets cautious before next week's Jackson Hole
• Equities: US and European stocks fell as yields and oil rose, Asian markets started mixed as investors reassessed the AI trade.
• Digital Assets: Crypto proxies extended their breakout on strong fund demand and continued short covering
• Commodities: Weather, war and debt drive weekly commodity gains
• Fixed Income: US 10-year yield rebounds to where it was before the recent Treasury buyback announcement, even as US Treasury Secretary comes out with further attempts to support the market.
• Currencies: USD remains weak, JPY also weak but found support early Friday.

Macro

• Japan’s annual inflation rose to 1.9% in July 2026 from 1.6% in June, the highest since December 2025, driven by smaller declines in electricity prices after subsidy cuts and higher costs for food and other services. Core inflation increased to 1.8%, its highest since March, but remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the sixth straight month. Besides Japan, inflation pressures are broadening after Germany's producer prices climbed 3.0% year-on-year, the fastest since April 2023, and Australian consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9%.
• US bond yields rose again on Thursday, apparently prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to appear in a hastily scheduled TV interview on CNBC, seemingly put together for damage control after widespread commentary that Wednesday’s Treasury buyback announcement is a drop in the US Treasury market ocean. Bessent said that the administration will unveil a new fiscal initiative aimed at tackling the highest borrowing costs in years. He also clarified that, in addition to Treasury plans to at least double the size of buybacks for longer-dated securities to support orderly trading in what Bessent described as a “thin” summer market, the operations could exceed the USD 4 billion currently planned to start next month, adding that the administration has a “big toolkit” to bring bond yields down.
• US-Iran diplomacy is in stalemate. President Trump reportedly told his team a deal with Iran is unlikely and ordered talks frozen for several weeks, while Iranian adviser Rezaei suggested Tehran's best response to economic pressure would be to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Houthi forces are reported to be preparing a new phase of escalation against Saudi Arabia, and Trump's threat of economic warfare against Iran pushed crude to a near four-week high.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

• 0600 – Sweden Jul. Unemployment Rate
• 0600 – UK Jul. Retail Sales
• 0715 – France Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 0730 – Germany Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 0800 – Eurozone Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 1345 – US S&P Global Aug. Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI
• 1400 – Eurozone Aug. Flash Consumer Confidence

The Jackson Hole symposium runs from 27 to 29 August, with Chair Kevin Warsh delivering his first keynote on Friday 28 August. The theme of the symposium is titled “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy” – seen as likely to deliver thoughts on the potential use of stablecoins for financial system plumbing, but the market is more curious about the Fed’s interest rate policy intentions.

Earnings events

Next week:

• Tuesday: Intuit, Zoom Communications
• Wednesday: Nvidia, Crowdstrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent Technologies, HP, Okta
• Thursday: Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Workday, Rubrik, Pernod Ricard

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, the Dow dropped 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.7%, extending its decline to five sessions as higher oil prices and Treasury yields pressured stocks. Walmart suffered its steepest fall since 2022 after US comparable sales grew at the slowest pace in six years and guidance disappointed, while Moderna plunged 23.6% after its extraordinary rally a day earlier and Apple fell 1.8%. After hours, Ross Stores jumped 7.9% as strong customer traffic helped the retailer raise its full-year earnings forecast.
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, extending its losing streak to seven sessions, while Germany’s DAX dropped 0.4% and the FTSE 100 finished broadly flat as higher energy prices and bond yields kept sentiment cautious. LVMH fell 2.8% as luxury stocks weakened, while JD Sports plunged 14.3% after cutting its profit outlook following softer North American sales. Swedish steelmaker SSAB dropped 9% amid concerns over lower trade barriers for Canadian steel, while industrial names Sandvik and Epiroc gained 2.9% and 3.4%, respectively.
• Asia: South Korea’s Kospi opened 1.4% lower as investors remained cautious around the recent rotation away from crowded AI trades, despite expectations of a major shareholder return plan from Samsung Electronics. Alibaba remained in focus after quarterly profit fell 75% as heavy artificial intelligence spending offset 9% revenue growth, although cloud revenue rose 45%; its US-listed shares recovered from an early 5% drop to finish higher. NetEase fell 5.6% in US trading after missing earnings expectations, while investors also awaited Samsung’s board meeting and the Hang Seng Index’s quarterly rebalance.
• More in our Equity Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

• The crypto complex extended its breakout for a third session early Friday, with the original spark coming from the US Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday as crypto is seen as a safe haven from US Treasury debt instability and any liquidity measures that might be employed to address it. Bitcoin rose another USD 2,500 early Friday, taking the total three-day advance to over 16%. The listed crypto proxies again outpaced spot on Thursday as short covering and fund demand carried over. Marathon gained 15.54%, Cipher 8.31%, Riot 8.26%, Strategy 7.81% and Coinbase 7.58%, while Deribit’s DVOL rose 2.84% to 40.56.
• Spot bitcoin funds took in USD 517 million Thursday, the most since early May, and ether products USD 189 million, while the CBOE seeks approval for the first US triple-leveraged bitcoin and ether ETFs.

Commodities

• Weather, war, fiscal debt concerns, and a softer dollar all supporting broad-based commodity gains this week, with the BCOM TR index rising around 3%, lifting its YTD return to 30%. All sectors except industrial metals traded higher, led by soft commodities with gains of around 5%, followed by precious metals and energy, also near 5%, while grains trailed with a roughly 3% advance. At the individual commodity level, platinum, silver, crude oil, diesel, sugar and cocoa all recorded gains of more than 5%, highlighting the increasingly broad nature of the current rally.
• Oil: Brent rose to its highest level in almost four weeks near USD 95 after President Trump threatened Iran with economic warfare, before paring the advance to trade near USD 93.5, with WTI around USD 86.4. The US administration is expected to provide details on Monday about how it intends to further isolate Iran’s economy, with traders concerned that tougher measures could trigger significant blowback from China, a key trading partner and buyer of Iranian oil. With the Middle East crisis showing few signs of easing, the risk of further disruption to regional energy flows continues to support crude and refined product prices.
• Gold: Thursday’s setback, triggered partly by rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns, proved temporary, with gold surging again as long-end Treasury yields climbed following a Bessent interview that failed to quell investor concerns about spiralling US debt and fiscal sustainability. The ability of gold to rally alongside higher nominal yields highlights the growing importance of fiscal and debt concerns as a driver of hard-asset demand. Gold is on track for a third consecutive weekly gain and could potentially secure a weekly close above its 200-day moving average, currently near USD 4,514, strengthening the technical recovery following its recent correction.
• Copper: The transition metal trades softer on the week as LME inventories head for their biggest weekly inflow since 2020, with traders delivering metal to profit from the recent supply squeeze. Despite the immediate relief, nearby spreads remain elevated and the market vulnerable after months of inventory outflows, much of it diverted to the US ahead of a potential tariff announcement. Underlying physical supply therefore remains tight, supporting the broader bullish outlook.
• More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields lifted again Thursday, rebounding from the drop inspired by the US Treasury buyback announcement on Wednesday. The benchmark US 10-year yield recovered all its lost ground, trading near 4.70% and thus near the levels trading before the Treasury announcement and just below the cycle high of 4.75% that has held back Treasury sellers for several weeks. The benchmark 30-year yield traded 5.25% early Friday, about mid-range from the cycle top above 5.33% and the post-buyback announcement low of 5.18%. At the front end of the curve, volatility was lower as the benchmark 2-year yield traded slightly higher but still below the week’s high just above 4.20%.
• Japan’s government bond yields rebounded late Thursday from their intraday lows and rose further at the long end of the yield curve on Friday, but the benchmark 10-year JGB yield only traded two basis points higher to 2.88% and is below the halfway point of this week’s trading range, suggesting no immediate panic on the rebound in US Treasury yields.

Currencies

• The US dollar remained weak Thursday and early Friday, but the Japanese yen also weakened as US Treasury yields rebounded quickly despite Wednesday’s US Treasury buyback announcement, suggesting that the market is also worried about the debt dynamics in the Japanese government bond market. USDJPY rebounded as high as 159.13 early Friday before firming into early European trading hours, back below 158.90, while EURUSD was steady near 1.1700.
• Sweden’s Riksbank didn’t sound any urgent notes on the need to hike its 1.75% policy rate at its meeting on Thursday, saying merely that the “probability of a rate increase later this year remains” as it said the forward economic picture is not clearcut and its overall outlook for the Swedish economy remains unchanged. This sent Sweden’s short-term yields lower as the market pushed expectations for a possible rate hike further over the horizon. This sent EURSEK from the 11.00 area to nearly 11.09 at one point on Thursday. Key range resistance in that important exchange rate for SEK is just above 11.11, the highest level since August 2025.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis