Morning Brew July 11 2022
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Nervous start to the earnings Season due to gas cuts in Europe and recession fears
Equities closed little moved on Friday, with US Indexes all within 0.2%. The Nonfarm payroll beat expectations and unemployment remained low.
This morning nervousness prevails, the Dax is indicated down 1.5% and US Futures app 1%, the USD Index rises to 107.40 with EURUSD at 1.0140 and GBPUSD sub 1.20. The Euro is weighed down by rising fears of a recession and a rising trade deficit. Economists expect a German recession with a probability of 55%, EU wide 45%.
The Japanese LDP won yesterdays election and indications that the loose monetary stance will be maintained let the yen fall to the lowest level this century. Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday warned of "very high uncertainty" over the economic outlook The next significant levels are north of 140, currently 137.20.
Bitcoin loses 6%, Gond and Silver are fairly stable at 1740 and 19.18.
Germany announced that at the moment no gas is being delivered through the Nordstream 1 pipeline, this was not unexpected but the worry is that the deliveries do not pick up after the scheduled maintenance.
Credit Suisse credit default spreads rise to the highest level since the global financial crisis at 205.
Elon Musk announced Friday to withdraw from the Twitter purchase and it looks like an interesting legal battle coming up. Twitter hired a law firm while Elon Musk tweeted he was building a litigation department and asked for resumes.
Macau ordered Casinos to close due to Corona numbers
Economic Data this week will be the ZEW Tomorrow, Chinese Trade data on Wednesday, followed by the UK GDP and German CPI, EU industrial Production and the US CPI as most important event of the week, Thursday the US PPI and Friday Chinese Retail sales and GDP, US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan.
On Wednesday the Bank of Canada s well as the Royal Bank of New Zealand will announce rates, both are expected to hike, the RBNZ by 0.5% and the BoC by 0.75%.
The earning season kicks off with moderate expectations, earnings are expected to grow by 6% in the 2nd Quarter for the S&P 500.
Please see Peters preview here: Q2 earnings preview, biotechnology breakout
- Tuesday 12 July: Tryg, DNB Bank, PepsiCo
- Wednesday 13 July: Fastenal, Delta Air Lines
- Thursday 14 July: Fast Retailing, Ericsson, SEB, EQT, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Cintas
- Friday 15 July: Investor, Sandvik, EMS-Chemie, UnitedHealth, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, BlackRock, Citigroup, Progressive, US Bancorp, PNC Financial Services
- Monday 18 July: Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Nordea
- Tuesday 19 July: Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Lockheed Martin, Netflix, Atlas Copco, Volvo, Halliburton, Assa Abloy, Hasbro, Yara International
- Wednesday 20 July: Tesla, Abbott Laboratories, ASML, CSX, Nidex, Biogen, Baker Hughes, Kone, Volvo Car, Aker, Dassault Aviation, United Airlines, ASM International, Alfa Laval
- Thursday 21 July: Roche, Danaher, AT&T, Blackstone, SAP, Intuitive Surgical, ABB, Freeport-McMoRan, Kinder Morgan, Nucor, DR Horton, Nokia, Essity, Seagate Technology, MarketAxess
- Friday 22 July: Verizon, NextEra Energy, American Express, Schlumberger, Twitter, Danske Bank, Norsk Hydro
- Monday 25 July: NXP Semiconductors, Kuehne + Nagel, Philips, Ryanair
- Tuesday 26 July: Alphabet, Visa, LVMH, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, UPS, Texas Instruments, Raytheon Technologies, Unilever, Christian Dior, General Electric, UBS Group, General Motors, Archer-Daniels-Midland, Southern Copper, DSV, UniCredit
- Wednesday 27 July: Microsoft, Meta, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Qualcomm, AMD, Equinor, GSK, ServiceNow, Rio Tinto, Mondelez, Boeing, Airbus, 3M, Kering, Humana, Mercedes-Benz, Ford Motor, Kraft Heinz, Shopify, BASF, Danone, Fanucm Enphase Energy, Spotify, Garmin
- Thursday 28 July: Apple, Nestle, Pfizer, Merck, L’Oreal, Shell, Comcast, Intel, Linde, TotalEnergies, Sanofi, Honeywell, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Keyence, Volkswagen, Air Liquide, Schneider Electric, Banco Santander, Valero Energy, Stellantis, Neste, BAE Systems, Arcelor Mittal
- Friday 29 July: Amazon, Exxon Mobil, P&G, Mastercard, Chevron, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Sony, Caterpillar, Colgate-Palmolive, BNP Paribas, Twilio, Pinterest