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Morning Brew February 22 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Strong PMI paints hawkish picture
Good Morning,
Due to travels, there will be no update tomorrow.
Due to rates and overall risk averseness, Equities are trading lower and US Indexes have the worst day of the year with all 3 big indexes 2% lower. A bleak outlook by Wallmart and a strong PMI in comination with fears of an escalation in Ukraine proved a bad combination.
The US500 is trading at 4000, the US30 33150 the US Tech100 12080 and the GER40 15350.
FX reacted less strongly, the USD Index remained at 104.10 EURUSD 1.0660, USDJPY is 134.70 abd Cable 1.2105. Gold and Silver are at 1836 and 21.80.
In Japan the 10 year Bond breached the 0.50 and forced the BoJ to intervene and the Central Bank o% with a hawkish outlook New Zealand raised rates by 0.5%.
Tonight we are expecting the minutes of the last Fed Meeting and it will be interesting to see if they will have a significant impact. The overall economic picture has changed a great deal since the last FOMC meeting and there is little sign of a slowdown in the US economy. The CPI is high, the nonfarm Payroll much higher than expected, the PMI shows expansion and lower earnings seem to be ignored. A hint which number the Fed is monitoring most will be interesting and may put the focus on the PCE on Friday.
Today:
Data: DE HICP, CPI, IFO, US Minutes
Earnings: Wix, Garmin, Nvidia, Etsy,
Thursday
Data: Turkey Rate decision, US GDP, Initial Jobless Claims
Earnings: Alibaba, Moderna, wayfair, Nikola, Wish, Beyond Meat
Friday
Data: DE GDP PCE University of Michigan
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
OJH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023
RCH3 will expire 22 Feb 2023
NGH3 will expire 23 Feb 2023
Expiring CFDs
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WHEATMAR23 will expire 24 Feb 2023