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Morning Brew February 14 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: CPI Coming Up
Good Morning,
Today we are staring a data and comment laden couple of days that will hint at the future rate path of the Federal Reserve.
Yesterday we traded risk on in Equities and Key FX crosses, the S&P and the Dow gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5%, Big Teck was the largest contributor with Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia gaining near 3%. The GER40 is testing the 15400 again.
EURUSD rose back to 1.0737, GBPUSD 1.2140 and USDJPY 132. Gold and Silver are stuck at 1860 and 21.95.
The 2 year US Yield is moving massively recently, on Feb 2nd we traded a low of 4.03 and yesterday we reached a high at 4.56.
At 11 today the EU Will release the GDP estimate for Q4 last year and at 14:30 the US will publish the CPI. There are also some Fed Speakers – the CPI should be key today. Expected is a monthly 0.5 % with a core at 0.4% and an annual 6.2%. JP Morgan is rather bullish today and calculates a 70% probability the S&P will gain 1.5% or more after the CPI.
The current expectation for the Feds path is a hike by 25 BPS at least the next two meetings and maybe 1 more, the current peak rate is seen at 5.2 in July and ending the year at 4.9%. Any shift here will be driver of the markets.
Japan announced Kazuo Ueda as next Bank of Japan governor, a choice that could heighten the chance of an end to its unpopular yield control policy. The Japanese GDP disappointed over night.
Tuesday
Data: UK Unemployment Data, EU GGDP and US CPI, Feds Logan and Williams speak.
Earnings: Coca Cola, Kubota, Airbnb, Suncor, Tripadvisor,
Wednesday:
Data: UK CPI US Retail Sales, Industrial Production,
Earnings: KraftHeinz, Barclays, Cisco, Shopify, AIG, Roku
Thursday
Data: US PPI Feds Mester and Bullard speak
Earnings: Air Liquide, Crocs, Hyatt, Dropbox,
Friday
Data: UK Retail Sales, France CPI US Import Prices
Earnings: John Deere Mercedes, Natwest
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
KCH3 will expire 16 Feb at 16:00 GMT
PAH3 will expire 20 Feb at 16:00 GMT
CCH3, CTH3 will expire 21 Feb at 16:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
COFFEENYMAR23 will expire 15 Feb 2023 at 16:00 GMT
OILUSMAR23, PALLADIUMMAR23 will expire 17 Feb at 16:00 GMT
COCOANYMAR23, COTTONMAR23 will expire 29 Feb at 16:00 GMT