back
Details Cookies
Switzerland
Important margin product information
CFDs and forex spot transactions are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 74% of retail investor lose money when trading CFDs and/or forex spot with this provider. 0.56% of retail clients trading in leveraged products experience a negative account balance after a stop out occurred. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, forex spot transactions or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take high risk of losing your money.
Cookie policy

This website uses cookies to offer you a better browsing experience by enabling, optimising and analysing site operations, as well as to provide personalised ad content and allow you to connect to social media. By choosing “Accept all” you consent to the use of cookies and the related processing of personal data. Select “Manage consent” to manage your consent preferences. You can change your preferences or retract your consent at any time via the cookie policy page. Please view our cookie policy here and our privacy policy here

Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich Erik Schafhauser Zürich

Morning Brew February 14 2023

Morning Brew 1 minute to read
Erik Schafhauser

Senior Relationship Manager

Summary:  CPI Coming Up


Good Morning, 

Today we are staring a data and comment laden couple of days that will hint at the future rate path of the Federal Reserve.

Yesterday we traded risk on in Equities and Key FX crosses, the S&P and the Dow gained 1.1% and the Nasdaq 1.5%, Big Teck was the largest contributor with Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia gaining near 3%. The GER40 is testing the 15400 again.

EURUSD rose back to 1.0737, GBPUSD 1.2140 and USDJPY 132. Gold and Silver are stuck at 1860 and 21.95.

The 2 year US Yield is moving massively recently, on Feb 2nd we traded a low of 4.03 and yesterday we reached a high at 4.56.

At 11 today the EU Will release the GDP estimate for Q4 last year and at 14:30 the US will publish the CPI.  There are also some Fed Speakers – the CPI should be key today. Expected is a monthly 0.5 % with a core at 0.4% and an annual 6.2%. JP Morgan is rather bullish today and calculates a 70% probability the S&P will gain 1.5% or more after the CPI.

The current expectation for the Feds path is a hike by 25 BPS at least the next two meetings and maybe 1 more, the current peak rate is seen at 5.2 in July and ending the year at 4.9%. Any shift here will be driver of the markets.

Japan announced Kazuo Ueda as next Bank of Japan governor, a choice that could heighten the chance of an end to its unpopular yield control policy. The Japanese GDP disappointed over night.

Tuesday

Data: UK Unemployment Data, EU GGDP and US CPI, Feds Logan and Williams speak.

Earnings:   Coca Cola, Kubota, Airbnb, Suncor, Tripadvisor,

Wednesday:

Data: UK CPI US Retail Sales, Industrial Production,

Earnings:   KraftHeinz, Barclays, Cisco, Shopify, AIG, Roku

Thursday

Data: US PPI Feds Mester and Bullard speak

Earnings:   Air Liquide, Crocs, Hyatt, Dropbox,

 

Friday

Data: UK Retail Sales, France CPI US Import Prices

Earnings:   John Deere Mercedes, Natwest

Expiries

        Physically Settled Futures

KCH3 will expire 16 Feb at 16:00 GMT

PAH3 will expire 20 Feb at 16:00 GMT

CCH3, CTH3 will expire 21 Feb at 16:00 GMT

Expiring CFDs

COFFEENYMAR23 will expire 15 Feb 2023 at 16:00 GMT

OILUSMAR23, PALLADIUMMAR23 will expire 17 Feb at 16:00 GMT

COCOANYMAR23, COTTONMAR23 will expire 29 Feb at 16:00 GMT

 

 

Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/saxoselect-disclaimer/disclaimer)

Saxo Bank (Schweiz) AG
Beethovenstrasse 33
CH-8002
Zurich
Switzerland

Contact Saxo

Select region

Switzerland
Switzerland

All trading carries risk. Losses can exceed deposits on margin products. You should consider whether you understand how our products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a general Risk Warning series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. The KIDs can be accessed within the trading platform. Please note that the full prospectus can be obtained free of charge from Saxo Bank (Switzerland) ltd. or the issuer.

This website can be accessed worldwide however the information on the website is related to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. All clients will directly engage with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and all client agreements will be entered into with Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. and thus governed by Swiss Law.

The content of this website represents marketing material and has not been notified or submitted to any supervisory authority.

If you contact Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. or visit this website, you acknowledge and agree that any data that you transmit to Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., either through this website, by telephone or by any other means of communication (e.g. e-mail), may be collected or recorded and transferred to other Saxo Bank Group companies or third parties in Switzerland or abroad and may be stored or otherwise processed by them or Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. You release Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. from its obligations under Swiss banking and securities dealer secrecies and, to the extent permitted by law, data protection laws as well as other laws and obligations to protect privacy. Saxo Bank (Switzerland) Ltd. has implemented appropriate technical and organizational measures to protect data from unauthorized processing and disclosure and applies appropriate safeguards to guarantee adequate protection of such data.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc.