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Morning Brew August 6 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Slow day ahead? Maybe not
Good morning,
We are heading into a day slow with data and non-crucial US earnings. McDonald's will be interesting, but it is usually not market-moving.
In my view, geopolitics and US rate policy will be the key drivers. Donald Trump is looking to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals and possibly semiconductors. He is also aiming to fill the vacant Federal Reserve seat by the end of the week. There is some movement from Russia, indicating a willingness to negotiate. Trump stated that tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could eventually reach 250%. Karin Keller-Sutter and Guy Parmelin are in Washington to prevent the 39% tariffs from taking effect.
US indexes showed the Dow down 0.1%, the S&P 500 down 0.5%, and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, driven by concerns over the impact of the trade war. Caterpillar warned that tariffs would pose significant challenges in the second half of the year, and Yum Brands missed its target. Super Micro missed earnings expectations and fell 11% after hours. OpenAI is in early-stage discussions about a stock sale that would allow employees to cash out and could value the company at about $500 billion.
US yields rose slightly with the 1-year at 3.94% and the 10-year at 4.22%. EURUSD is at 1.1580, USDJPY at 147.40, and GBPUSD at 1.33. Gold and silver are trading at 3,375 and 37.85, respectively.
Jacob is back from holiday and commented on AMD, while Charu is examining how to trade the shift in US rate expectations.
Wednesday, August 6, 2025
Economic Events
• Eurozone: Retail Sales
- Germany Industrial Orders
Top Earnings Releases
• Uber, Shopify, Disney, McDonalds,
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Economic Events
- China Trade
- Germany Industrial Output
- UK House Prices
- UK Rate decision
• U.S.: Productivity (Q2, preliminary), Wholesale Inventories (June, final), Consumer Credit
• Japan: Leading Indicators (June, preliminary), Trade Balance, Current Account
• UK: Bank of England
Top Earnings Releases
• Shopify (SHOP)
• Trex Co (TREX)
• Under Armour (UAA)
• Wendy’s (WEN)654.
Friday, August 8, 2025
Economic Events
• Canada: Employment Report
Top Earnings Releases
• Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN)
• Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR)
• Enbridge (ENB)
• Lamar Advertising (LAMR)
• Tempus AI (TEM)